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Are there waves in merger activity after all?

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  • Gärtner, Dennis L.
  • Halbheer, Daniel

Abstract

This paper investigates the merger wave hypothesis for the US and the UK employing a Markov regime-switching model. Using quarterly data covering the last 30Â years, for the US, we identify the beginning of a merger wave in the mid 1990s but not the much-discussed 1980s merger wave. We argue that the latter finding can be ascribed to the refined methods of inference offered by the Gibbs sampling approach. As opposed to the US, mergers in the UK exhibit multiple waves, with activity surging in the early 1970s and the late 1980s.

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  • Gärtner, Dennis L. & Halbheer, Daniel, 2009. "Are there waves in merger activity after all?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 708-718, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:27:y:2009:i:6:p:708-718
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    Cited by:

    1. Schmutzler, Armin, 2011. "A unified approach to comparative statics puzzles in experiments," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 212-223, January.
    2. Lalive, Rafael & Schmutzler, Armin, 2008. "Exploring the effects of competition for railway markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 443-458, March.
    3. Peter Zweifel & Harry Telser & Stephan Vaterlaus, 2005. "Consumer Resistance Against Regulation: The Case of Health Care," SOI - Working Papers 0505, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    4. Florian Szücs, 2013. "Clustering Properties of Merger Waves: Space, Time or Industry?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1322, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Boes, Stefan & Lipp, Markus & Winkelmann, Rainer, 2007. "Money illusion under test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 332-337, March.
    6. Buehler Stefan & Schmutzler Armin, 2005. "Asymmetric Vertical Integration," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-27, January.
    7. Stefan Boes, 2013. "Nonparametric analysis of treatment effects in ordered response models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 81-109, February.
    8. Gärtner, Dennis L. & Halbheer, Daniel, 2009. "Are there waves in merger activity after all?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 708-718, November.
    9. Patrick Eugster & Peter Zweifel, 2006. "Correlated Risks: A Conflict of Interest Between Insurers and Consumers and Its Resolution," SOI - Working Papers 0604, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    10. Simon Loertscher & Yves Schneider, 2005. "Switching Costs, Firm Size, and Market Structure," SOI - Working Papers 0508, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    11. Helga Fehr-Duda & Adrian Bruhin & Thomas Epper & Renate Schubert, 2010. "Rationality on the rise: Why relative risk aversion increases with stake size," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 147-180, April.
    12. Lukas Steinmann & Harry Telser & Peter Zweifel, 2005. "The Impact of Aging on Future Healthcare Expenditure," SOI - Working Papers 0510, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Dec 2006.
    13. Lien Duong, 2013. "Aggregate Australian Takeovers: A Review of Markov Regime Switching Models," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 529-558, December.
    14. Boris Krey & Peter Zweifel, 2006. "Efficient Electricity Portfolios for Switzerland and the United States," SOI - Working Papers 0602, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    15. Gugler, Klaus & Mueller, Dennis C. & Weichselbaumer, Michael, 2012. "The determinants of merger waves: An international perspective," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15.
    16. Stefan Boes & Rainer Winkelmann, 2006. "Ordered response models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 167-181, March.
    17. Jimmy A. Saravia, 2013. "Merger waves and the Austrian business cycle theory," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 010929, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.
    18. Halbheer, Daniel & Fehr, Ernst & Goette, Lorenz & Schmutzler, Armin, 2009. "Self-reinforcing market dominance," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 481-502, November.
    19. Peter Zweifel, 2005. "The Purpose and Limits of Social Health Insurance," SOI - Working Papers 0509, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Sep 2005.
    20. Gärtner, Dennis L. & Schmutzler, Armin, 2009. "Merger negotiations and ex-post regret," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1636-1664, July.
    21. Hans Gersbach & Armin Schmutzler, 2006. "A Product-Market Theory of Industry-Specific Training," SOI - Working Papers 0610, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    22. Hans Gersbach & Armin Schmutzler, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and R&D-offshoring," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(1), pages 134-157, January.
    23. Hou, Rui & Yang, Jianmei & Yao, Canzhong & McKelvey, Bill, 2015. "How does competition structure affect industry merger waves? A network analysis perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 140-156.
    24. Harry Telser & Peter Zweifel, 2003. "Validity of Discrete-Choice Experiments - Evidence for Health Risk Reduction," SOI - Working Papers 0313, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Feb 2005.
    25. Stefan Buehler & Armin Schmutzler, 2005. "On The Role of Access Charges Under Network Competition," SOI - Working Papers 0501, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Merger waves Markov regime-switching regression model Gibbs sampling;

    JEL classification:

    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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