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Are There Waves in Merger Activity After All?

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  • Dennis Gaertner

    (Socioeconomic Institute, University of Zurich)

  • Daniel Halbheer

    (Socioeconomic Institute, University of Zurich)

Abstract

This paper investigates the merger wave hypothesis for the US and the UK employing a Markov regime switching model. Using quarterly data covering the last thirty years, for the US, we identify the beginning of a merger wave in the mid 1990s but not the much-discussed 1980s merger wave. We argue that the latter finding can be ascribed to the refined methods of inference offered by the Gibbs sampling approach. As opposed to the US, mergers in the UK exhibit multiple waves, with activity surging in the early 1970s and the late 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Gaertner & Daniel Halbheer, 2004. "Are There Waves in Merger Activity After All?," SOI - Working Papers 0414, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Feb 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:soz:wpaper:0414
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mergerwaves; Markov Regime Switching Regression Model; Gibbs Sampling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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