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Technology Shocks, Q, and the Propensity to Merge

  • Lihong Han

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Illinois College)

  • Peter L. Rousseau

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University)

Data on U.S. mergers and aquisitions from 1987 to 2006 indicate that firms with high market-to-book values (i.e., Tobin's Q) tend to merge with firms that have lower Q's, but that target Q's are on average higher than those of firms not involved in mergers at all. We capture this fact with a model in which the ratio of a bidder's Q to that of a prospective target has a non-monotone, inverted U-shaped effect on the probability of the two firms merging. Further, we find that the likelihood of a merger is positively and linearly related to the ratio of the growth potential of an acquirer and its prospective target. Using data from Compustat, a series of bootstrap logit regressions bear out these implications.

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File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/VUECON/vu09-w14.pdf
File Function: First version, 2009
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Paper provided by Vanderbilt University Department of Economics in its series Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers with number 0914.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:0914
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/econ/wparchive/index.html

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  1. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January.
  2. Servaes, Henri, 1991. " Tobin's Q and the Gains from Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 409-19, March.
  3. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2002. "Mergers as Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 9279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gregor Andrade & Mark Mitchell & Erik Stafford, 2001. "New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 103-120, Spring.
  5. Harford, Jarrad, 2005. "What drives merger waves?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 529-560, September.
  6. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2002. "The Q-Theory of Mergers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 198-204, May.
  7. Charles R. Hulten, 1992. "Growth Accounting When Technical Change is Embodied in Capital," NBER Working Papers 3971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. repec:use:tkiwps:0518 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Gort, Michael, 1969. "An Economic Disturbance Theory of Mergers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 624-42, November.
  10. Rhodes-Kropf, Matthew & Robinson, David T. & Viswanathan, S., 2005. "Valuation waves and merger activity: The empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 561-603, September.
  11. Cockburn, Iain & Griliches, Zvi, 1988. "Industry Effects and Appropriability Measures in the Stock Market's Valuation of R&D and Patents," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 419-23, May.
  12. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 2003. "Stock market driven acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 295-311, December.
  13. Faria, Andre L., 2008. "Mergers and the market for organization capital," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 71-100, January.
  14. Mitchell, Mark L. & Mulherin, J. Harold, 1996. "The impact of industry shocks on takeover and restructuring activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 193-229, June.
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