IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of the macroeconomic environment on merger activity: evidence from US time-series data


  • Seung Hee Choi
  • Bang Nam Jeon


This article investigates the dynamic impact of the macroeconomic environment on aggregate merger activity in the US economy obtained from firm-level data during the period from January 1980 to December 2004. Applying time-series econometric tools to US Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) data, we find: First, there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the set of macroeconomic variables and four alternative measures of merger activity, implying that the macroeconomic factors plays an important role in determining the trend of aggregate merger activity in the US economy. Second, the most important macroeconomic variables in determining M&A volume include real income for the frequency-based measure of US merger activity, and stock market conditions and monetary policy for transaction value based measures of aggregate mergers. The ascending phase of business cycle provides the most favourable environment for more mergers for all four measures of merger activity. Our subsample period study provides evidence that 'corporate net cash flow' plays a significant role after 1998, which is consistent with the free-cash-flow hypothesis. Third, there are short run adjustment processes to the long-run equilibrium path in US merger activity. The main processes of impulse-response dynamics seem to finish within the 5-6 quarter period. We also discuss policy implications and directions for future extension.

Suggested Citation

  • Seung Hee Choi & Bang Nam Jeon, 2011. "The impact of the macroeconomic environment on merger activity: evidence from US time-series data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 233-249.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:21:y:2011:i:4:p:233-249 DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2010.528365

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Donato Masciandaro & Marc Quintyn, 2010. "Institutions Matter: Financial Supervision Architecture, Central Bank and Path-Dependence. General Trends and the South Eastern European Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 8(1), pages 7-53.
    2. Bordo, Michael D., 2008. "Growing up to Financial Stability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-17.
    3. Alexandros E. Milionis & Evangelia Papanagiotou, 2008. "A Note on the Use of Moving Average Trading Rules to Test For Weak from Efficiency in Capital Markets," Working Papers 91, Bank of Greece.
    4. Apostolides, Alexander, 2008. "“How Similar to South-Eastern Europe were the Islands of Cyprus and Malta in terms of Agricultural Output and Credit? Evidence during the Interwar Period”," MPRA Paper 9968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Georgiou, Evangelia A. & Staikouras, Christos C., 2009. "Assessing output and productivity growth in the banking industry," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 1317-1340, November.
    6. George A. Zombanakis & Constantinos Stylianou & Andreas S. Andreou, 2009. "The Greek Current Account Deficit:Is it Sustainable after all?," Working Papers 98, Bank of Greece.
    7. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Manthos D., 2011. "Bank-level estimates of market power," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 212(3), pages 508-517, August.
    8. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2009. "Macroeconomic Implications of Alternative Tax Regimes: The Case of Greece," Working Papers 97, Bank of Greece.
    9. Nikolay Nenovsky & Martin Ivanov & Gergana Mihaylova, 2008. "The Evolution of Bulgarian Banks' Efficiency During the Twenties: A Dea Approach," Working Papers 82, Bank of Greece.
    10. Zarko Lazarevic, 2008. "Banking Performance in South-Eastern Europe During the Interwar Period," Working Papers 79, Bank of Greece.
    11. Tavlas, George & Dellas, Harris & Stockman, Alan C., 2008. "The classification and performance of alternative exchange-rate systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 941-963, August.
    12. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    13. Sophia Lazaretou, 2008. "Banking and Central Banking in Pre-WWII Grecce: Money and Currency Developments," Working Papers 86, Bank of Greece.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Ülengin, Füsun & Önsel, Şule & Aktas, Emel & Kabak, Özgür & Özaydın, Özay, 2014. "A decision support methodology to enhance the competitiveness of the Turkish automotive industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(3), pages 789-801.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:21:y:2011:i:4:p:233-249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.