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Merger Waves and the Structure of Merger and Acquisition Time-Series

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  • Town, R J

Abstract

What is the best characterization of mergers and acquisitions time-series? The traditional response is that mergers occur in "waves." I estimate a two-state, Markov switching-regime model which should capture wave structure if it is present in the data. Linear and nonlinear diagnostics tests suggest that the switching regime model fits the data well, and better than ARIMA models. Said differently, the underlying pattern in the M&A data can be characterized by dichotomous shifts between high and low levels of activity. In addition, objective inferences about the precise dates for these waves are available through a nonlinear filter. Copyright 1992 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Town, R J, 1992. "Merger Waves and the Structure of Merger and Acquisition Time-Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 83-100, Suppl. De.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:7:y:1992:i:s:p:s83-100
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    Cited by:

    1. Gábor Péli & Hans Schenk, 2015. "Organizational decision-maker bias supports merger wave formation: demonstration with logical formalization," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 2459-2480, November.
    2. Shyh-Wei Chen & Mei-Rong Lin & Chung-Hua Shen, 2008. "Common wave behavior for mergers and acquisitions in OECD countries? a unique analysis using new Markov switching panel model approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(8), pages 1-12.
    3. Lien Duong, 2013. "Aggregate Australian Takeovers: A Review of Markov Regime Switching Models," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 529-558, December.
    4. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F. & Chakraborty, Atreya, 2001. "Waves and persistence in merger and acquisition activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 237-243, February.
    5. Gugler, Klaus & Mueller, Dennis C. & Weichselbaumer, Michael, 2012. "The determinants of merger waves: An international perspective," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15.
    6. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2001. "Stock Markets in the New Economy," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0118, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    7. Nikogosian, Vigen, 2012. "Der ZEW-ZEPHYR M&A-Index Deutschland: Determinanten und Prognose," ZEW Dokumentationen 12-06, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    8. PELI, Gábor & SCHENK, Hans, 2011. "Organizational decision-maker bias supports market wave formation: Evidence with logical formalization," ACED Working Papers 2011011, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    9. Neumann, Gyde & Weiss, Christoph R., 2001. "Strukturwandel durch Fusionen im Ernährungssektor: Ein anhaltender Konzentrationsprozess?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 50(6).
    10. Salvo, Alberto, 2004. "A general analysis of sequential merger games with an application to cross-border mergers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6732, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 404-415, October.
    12. Nilssen, Tore & Sorgard, Lars, 1998. "Sequential horizontal mergers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 1683-1702, November.
    13. Nakamura, H. Richard, 2002. "Mapping Out the Japanese Mergers & Acquisitions Patterns - The Influence of Macro Factors on M & As," EIJS Working Paper Series 164, Stockholm School of Economics, The European Institute of Japanese Studies.
    14. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0040, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    15. Cook, Steven, 2007. "On the relationship between mergers and economic activity: Evidence from an optimised hybrid method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(2), pages 628-634.
    16. Inés PÉREZ-SOBA & Ana MARTINEZ-CAÑETE, "undated". "Tender Offers in Spain: Testing the Wave," EcoMod2008 23800108, EcoMod.
    17. Lien Duong & Izan H. Y. Izan, 2012. "Consequences of Riding Takeover Waves: A ustralian Evidence," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 399-434, December.
    18. Town, R.J., "undated". "Merger," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics merger, Boston College Department of Economics.
    19. Vanhaverbeke,Wim & Duysters,Geert, 1997. "A longitudinal analysis of the choice between technology-based strategic alliances and acquisitions in high-tech industries : the case of the ASIC industry," Research Memorandum 007, Maastricht University, Netherlands Institute of Business Organization and Strategy Research (NIBOR).
    20. Hou, Rui & Yang, Jianmei & Yao, Canzhong & McKelvey, Bill, 2015. "How does competition structure affect industry merger waves? A network analysis perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 140-156.

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