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The Impact of Aging on Future Healthcare Expenditure

  • Lukas Steinmann

    ()

    (Swiss Re, Zurich)

  • Harry Telser

    ()

    (Socioeconomic Institute, University of Zurich)

  • Peter Zweifel

    ()

    (Socioeconomic Institute, University of Zurich)

Registered author(s):

    The impact of aging on healthcare expenditure (HCE) has been at the center of a prolonged debate. This paper purports to shed light on several issues. First, it presents new evidence on the relative importance of the two components of HCE that have been distinguished by Zweifel, Felder and Meier (1999), viz. the cost of morbidity and the cost of mortality (their "red herring" hypothesis claims that neglecting the mortality component results in excessive estimates of future growth of HCE). Second, it takes account of recent evidence suggesting that HCE does increase life expectancy, implying that time-to-death is an endogenous determinant of HCE. Third, it investigates the contribution of population aging to the future growth of HCE. For the case of Switzerland, it finds this contribution to be relatively small regardless of whether or not the cost of dying is accounted for, thus qualifying the "red herring" hypothesis.

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    File URL: http://www.soi.uzh.ch/research/wp/2005/wp0510.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2006
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich in its series SOI - Working Papers with number 0510.

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    Length: 23 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2005
    Date of revision: Dec 2006
    Publication status: Published in Forum for Health Economics and Policy 10(2), Article 1, 2007
    Handle: RePEc:soz:wpaper:0510
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    1. Donja Darai & Dario Sacco & Armin Schmutzler, 2009. "Competition and Innovation: An Experimental Investigation," SOI - Working Papers 0608, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Apr 2007.
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    10. Sandra Hanslin & Rainer Winkelmann, 2006. "The Apple Falls Increasingly Far: Parent-Child Correlation in Schooling and the Growth of Post-Secondary Education in Switzerland," SOI - Working Papers 0603, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    11. Gersbach, Hans & Schmutzler, Armin, 2007. "Does Globalization Create Superstars?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    13. Yves Schneider & Peter Zweifel, 2005. "Spatial Effects in Willingness-to-Pay: The Case of Two Nuclear Risks," SOI - Working Papers 0502, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Sep 2007.
    14. Thomas Borek & Stefan Buehler & Armin Schmutzler, 2004. "Mergers under Asymmetric Information – Is there a Lemons Problem?," SOI - Working Papers 0408, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    15. Stefan Boes, 2007. "Count Data Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity: An Empirical Likelihood Approach," SOI - Working Papers 0704, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    16. Lalive, Rafael & Schmutzler, Armin, 2008. "Exploring the effects of competition for railway markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 443-458, March.
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