IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cmf/wpaper/wp2018_1806.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Procyclicality of Expected Credit Loss Provisions

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Abad

    (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)

  • Javier Suarez

    (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)

Abstract

The Great Recession has pushed accounting standards for banks' loan loss provisioning to shift from an incurred loss approach to an expected credit loss approach. IFRS 9 and the incoming update of US GAAP imply a more timely recognition of credit losses but also greater responsiveness to changes in aggregate conditions, which raises procyclicality concerns. This paper develops and calibrates a recursive ratings-migration model to assess the impact of different provisioning approaches on the cyclicality of banks' profits and regulatory capital. The model is used to analyze the effectiveness of potential policy responses to the procyclicality problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Abad & Javier Suarez, 2018. "The Procyclicality of Expected Credit Loss Provisions," Working Papers wp2018_1806, CEMFI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2018_1806
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cemfi.es/ftp/wp/1806.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reint Gropp & Thomas Mosk & Steven Ongena & Carlo Wix, 2019. "Banks Response to Higher Capital Requirements: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 266-299.
    2. Huizinga, Harry & Laeven, Luc, 2012. "Bank valuation and accounting discretion during a financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 614-634.
    3. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
    4. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy, Countercyclical Bank Capital Buffers, and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Spanish Dynamic Provisioning Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 2126-2177.
    5. Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2014. "Endogenous Liquidity and Defaultable Bonds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1443-1508, July.
    6. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Rollover Risk and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 391-430, April.
    7. Tobias Adrian & Federico Grinberg & Nellie Liang & Sheheryar Malik & Jie Yu, 2022. "The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 283-323, July.
    8. Anatoli Segura & Javier Suarez, 2017. "How Excessive Is Banks’ Maturity Transformation?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(10), pages 3538-3580.
    9. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    10. Bruche, Max & González-Aguado, Carlos, 2010. "Recovery rates, default probabilities, and the credit cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 754-764, April.
    11. Markus Behn & Rainer Haselmann & Paul Wachtel, 2016. "Procyclical Capital Regulation and Lending," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 919-956, April.
    12. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena, 2008. "Mark-to-market accounting and liquidity pricing," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2-3), pages 358-378, August.
    13. Aiyar, Shekhar & Calomiris, Charles W. & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "How does credit supply respond to monetary policy and bank minimum capital requirements?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 142-165.
    14. Kilian Huber, 2018. "Disentangling the Effects of a Banking Crisis: Evidence from German Firms and Counties," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 868-898, March.
    15. Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal, 2007. "How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 167-187.
    16. Jörg Breitung & Malte Knüppel, 2021. "How far can we forecast? Statistical tests of the predictive content," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 369-392, June.
    17. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Can We Predict Recessions?," NCER Working Paper Series 69, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    18. Fischer, Edwin O & Heinkel, Robert & Zechner, Josef, 1989. " Dynamic Capital Structure Choice: Theory and Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 19-40, March.
    19. Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Allen Monks, 2015. "Did the EBA Capital Exercise Cause a Credit Crunch in the Euro Area?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 75-117, June.
    20. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    21. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    22. Robert M. Bushman & Christopher D. Williams, 2015. "Delayed Expected Loss Recognition and the Risk Profile of Banks," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 511-553, June.
    23. Benjamin H Cohen & Gerald A. Edwards, Jr., 2017. "The new era of expected credit loss provisioning," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    24. Zidong An & João Tovar Jalles & Prakash Loungani, 2018. "How well do economists forecast recessions?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 100-121, June.
    25. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    26. Beatty, Anne & Liao, Scott, 2011. "Do delays in expected loss recognition affect banks' willingness to lend?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-20, June.
    27. Krüger, Steffen & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "The impact of loan loss provisioning on bank capital requirements," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 114-129.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bernd Engelmann & Ha Pham, 2020. "Measuring the Performance of Bank Loans under Basel II/III and IFRS 9/CECL," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Tristan Brouwer & Job Huttenhuis & Ralph ter Hoeven, 2021. "Empirical results for expected credit losses of G-SIBs during COVID-19. The proof of the pudding is in the eating," Maandblad Voor Accountancy en Bedrijfseconomie Articles, Maandblad Voor Accountancy en Bedrijfseconomie, vol. 95(11-12), pages 381-396, December.
    3. Morais, Bernardo & Ormazabal, Gaizka & Peydro, J.L. & Roa, Monica & Sarmiento Paipilla, Miguel, 2020. "Forward Looking Loan Provisions : Credit Supply and Risk-Taking," Other publications TiSEM fe99a48f-f94a-41d8-bf3f-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Ormazabal, Gaizka & López-Espinosa, Germán & Sakasai, Yuki, 2020. "Switching From Incurred to Expected Loan Loss Provisioning: Early Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 14803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Sehwa Kim & Seil Kim & Anya V. Kleymenova & Rongchen Li, 2023. "Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL) Standard and Banks' Information Production," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Bischof, Jannis & Laux, Christian & Leuz, Christian, 2020. "Accounting for financial stability: Lessons from the financial crisis and future challenges," SAFE Working Paper Series 283, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    7. Sarah Chae & Robert F. Sarama & Cindy M. Vojtech & James Z. Wang, 2018. "The Impact of the Current Expected Credit Loss Standard (CECL) on the Timing and Comparability of Reserves," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Rui Pedro Brito & Pedro Alarcão Judice, 2021. "Efficient credit portfolios under IFRS 9," CeBER Working Papers 2021-07, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    9. Fang Du & Diana Hancock & Alexander H. von Hafften, 2022. "Are Incurred Loss Standards Countercyclical? A Case Study Using U.S. Bank Holding Company Data," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-30, February.
    10. Kostic, Natalija & Muthsam, Viktoria & Laux, Christian, 2023. "Accounting Changes and Enforcement of Bank Capital Requirements in a Crisis," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277694, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Mariya Gubareva, 2019. "Weight of the Default Component of CDS Spreads: Avoiding Procyclicality in Credit Loss Provisioning Framework," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-19, July.
    12. Oľga Pastiranová & Jiří Witzany, 2021. "Ifrs 9 And It´S Behaviour In The Cycle: The Evidence On The Eu Countries," FFA Working Papers 3.003, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 02 May 2021.
    13. Bischof, Jannis & Laux, Christian & Leuz, Christian, 2021. "Accounting for financial stability: Bank disclosure and loss recognition in the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1188-1217.
    14. Degryse, Hans & Huylebroek, Cédric, 2023. "Fiscal support and banks’ loan loss provisions during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Germán López‐Espinosa & Gaizka Ormazabal & Yuki Sakasai, 2021. "Switching from Incurred to Expected Loan Loss Provisioning: Early Evidence," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 757-804, June.
    16. Behn, Markus & Couaillier, Cyril, 2023. "Same same but different: credit risk provisioning under IFRS 9," Working Paper Series 2841, European Central Bank.
    17. Bischof, Jannis & Haselmann, Rainer & Kohl, Frederik & Schlueter, Oliver, 2022. "Limitations of implementing an expected credit loss model," LawFin Working Paper Series 48, Goethe University, Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance (LawFin).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alessi, Lucia & Bruno, Brunella & Carletti, Elena & Neugebauer, Katja, 2019. "What drives bank coverage ratios: Evidence from the euro area," Working Papers 2019-14, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    2. Sehwa Kim, 2022. "Delays in Banks’ Loan Loss Provisioning and Economic Downturns: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 711-754, June.
    3. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2021. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    4. Behn, Markus & Couaillier, Cyril, 2023. "Same same but different: credit risk provisioning under IFRS 9," Working Paper Series 2841, European Central Bank.
    5. Björn Imbierowicz & Jonas Kragh & Jesper Rangvid, 2018. "Time‐Varying Capital Requirements and Disclosure Rules: Effects on Capitalization and Lending Decisions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 573-602, June.
    6. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2018. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer: the Czech example," ESRB Working Paper Series 82, European Systemic Risk Board.
    7. Sivec, Vasja & Volk, Matjaž, 2021. "Bank response to policy-related changes in capital requirements," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 868-877.
    8. Viral V. Acharya & Stephen G. Ryan, 2016. "Banks’ Financial Reporting and Financial System Stability," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 277-340, May.
    9. Bischof, Jannis & Laux, Christian & Leuz, Christian, 2020. "Accounting for financial stability: Lessons from the financial crisis and future challenges," SAFE Working Paper Series 283, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    10. Retselisitsoe I. Thamae & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "The impact of bank regulation on bank lending: a review of international literature," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 405-418, December.
    11. Bischof, Jannis & Laux, Christian & Leuz, Christian, 2021. "Accounting for financial stability: Bank disclosure and loss recognition in the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1188-1217.
    12. Noor Hashim & Weijia Li & John O'Hanlon, 2019. "Reflections on the development of the FASB’s and IASB’s expected-loss methods of accounting for credit losses," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(6), pages 682-725, September.
    13. Suarez, Javier & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2018. "Approaching non-performing loans from a macroprudential angle," Report of the Advisory Scientific Committee 7, European Systemic Risk Board.
    14. Björn Imbierowicz & Axel Löffler & Ursula Vogel, 2021. "The transmission of bank capital requirements and monetary policy to bank lending in Germany," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 144-164, February.
    15. Bert Loudis & Ben Ranish, 2019. "CECL and the Credit Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Manuela M. Dantas & Kenneth J. Merkley & Felipe B. G. Silva, 2023. "Government Guarantees and Banks' Income Smoothing," Papers 2303.03661, arXiv.org.
    17. Caterina Mendicino & Kalin Nikolov & Javier Suarez & Dominik Supera, 2018. "Optimal Dynamic Capital Requirements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1271-1297, September.
    18. Degryse, Hans & Huylebroek, Cédric, 2023. "Fiscal support and banks’ loan loss provisions during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Hegde, Shantaram P. & Kozlowski, Steven E., 2021. "Discretionary loan loss provisioning and bank stock returns: The Role of economic booms and busts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    20. Buesa, Alejandro & Población García, Francisco Javier & Tarancón, Javier, 2019. "Measuring the procyclicality of impairment accounting regimes: a comparison between IFRS 9 and US GAAP," Working Paper Series 2347, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit loss allowances; expected credit losses; incurred losses; rating migrations; procyclicality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2018_1806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Araceli Requerey (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemfies.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.