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Forward Looking Loan Provisions: Credit Supply and Risk-taking

Author

Listed:
  • Bernardo Morais
  • Gaizka Ormazabal
  • José-Luis Peydró
  • Mónica Roa
  • Miguel Sarmiento

Abstract

e show corporate-level real, financial, and (bank) risk-taking effects associated with calculating loan provisions based on expected-rather than incurred-credit losses. For identification, we exploit unique features of a Colombian reform and supervisory, matched loan-level data. The regulatory change induces a dramatic increase in provisions. Banks tighten all new lending conditions, adversely affecting borrowing-firms, with stronger effects for risky-firms. Moreover, to minimize provisioning, more affected (less-capitalized) banks cut credit supply to risky-firms- SMEs with shorter credit history, less tangible assets or more defaulted loans-but engage in "search-for-yield" within regulatory constraints and increase portfolio concentration, thereby decreasing risk diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardo Morais & Gaizka Ormazabal & José-Luis Peydró & Mónica Roa & Miguel Sarmiento, 2020. "Forward Looking Loan Provisions: Credit Supply and Risk-taking," Working Papers 1199, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1199
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    Cited by:

    1. Morales, Paola & Osorio, Daniel & Lemus, Juan S. & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2022. "The internationalization of domestic banks and the credit channel of monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Gao, Huasheng & Wang, Yuxi, 2025. "Tariff uncertainty and the cost of debt: Evidence from United States–China permanent normal trade relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Daniel Dejuan-Bitria & Wayne R. Landsman & Sergio Mayordomo & Irene Roibás, 2024. "How do changes in financial reporting standards affect relationship lending?," Working Papers 2437, Banco de España.
    4. José Luis Peydró & Hernán Rincón-Castro & Miguel Sarmiento & Alejandro Granados, 2025. "Wealth Taxes and Firms’ Capital Structures: Credit Supply and Real Effects," Borradores de Economia 1316, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Central Bank of Colombia, 2025. "Changes in the distribution of new loans by risk category throughout the post-pandemic credit cycle in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), How can central banks take account of differences across households and firms for monetary policy?, volume 127, pages 73-102, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Fabiani, Andrea & López-Piñeros, Martha & Peydró, José-Luis & Soto, Paul E., 2022. "Capital Controls, Domestic Macroprudential Policy and the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139(November ), pages 1-1.
    7. Bischof, Jannis & Haselmann, Rainer & Kohl, Frederik & Schlueter, Oliver, 2022. "Limitations of implementing an expected credit loss model," LawFin Working Paper Series 48, Goethe University, Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance (LawFin).
    8. Leonardo Villar-Gómez & Javier Gómez & Andrés Murcia Pabón & Wilmar Cabrera & Hernando Vargas, 2023. "The monetary and macroprudential policy framework in Colombia in the last 30 years: lessons learnt and challenges for the future," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Central banking in the Americas: Lessons from two decades, volume 127, pages 87-112, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Wilmar Cabrera & Santiago Gamba & Camilo Gómez & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2022. "Examining Macroprudential Policy through a Microprudential Lens," Borradores de Economia 1212, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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