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Forward looking loan provisions: Credit supply and risk-taking

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Abstract

We show corporate-level real, financial, and (bank) risk-taking effects associated with calculating loan provisions based on expected-rather than incurred-credit losses. For identification, we exploit unique features of a Colombian reform and supervisory, matched loan-level data. The regulatory change induces a dramatic increase in provisions. Banks tighten all new lending conditions, adversely affecting borrowing-firms, with stronger effects for risky-firms. Moreover, to minimize provisioning, more affected (less-capitalized) banks cut credit supply to risky-firms- SMEs with shorter credit history, less tangible assets or more defaulted loans-but engage in "search-for-yield" within regulatory constraints and increase portfolio concentration, thereby decreasing risk diversification.

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  • Bernardo Morais & Gaizka Ormazabal & José-Luis Peydró & Mónica Roa & Miguel Sarmiento, 2020. "Forward looking loan provisions: Credit supply and risk-taking," Economics Working Papers 1737, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1737
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Villar-Gómez & Javier Gómez & Andrés Murcia Pabón & Wilmar Cabrera & Hernando Vargas, 2023. "The monetary and macroprudential policy framework in Colombia in the last 30 years: lessons learnt and challenges for the future," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Central banking in the Americas: Lessons from two decades, volume 127, pages 87-112, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Fabiani, Andrea & López-Piñeros, Martha & Peydró, José-Luis & Soto, Paul E., 2022. "Capital Controls, Domestic Macroprudential Policy and the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139(November ), pages 1-1.
    3. Wilmar Cabrera & Santiago Gamba & Camilo Gómez & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2022. "Examining Macroprudential Policy through a Microprudential Lens," Borradores de Economia 1212, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Morales, Paola & Osorio, Daniel & Lemus, Juan S. & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2022. "The internationalization of domestic banks and the credit channel of monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Bischof, Jannis & Haselmann, Rainer & Kohl, Frederik & Schlueter, Oliver, 2022. "Limitations of implementing an expected credit loss model," LawFin Working Paper Series 48, Goethe University, Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance (LawFin).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loan provisions; IFRS9; ECL; corporate real and credit supply effects of accounting; bank risk-taking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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