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The cyclicality in SICR: mortgage modelling under IFRS 9

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  • Gaffney, Edward
  • McCann, Fergal

Abstract

Banks must make forward-looking provisions for loan losses under new international accounting standards introduced in 2018. In Europe, banks will assign performing exposures to a new “Stage 2” category with a higher provisioning penalty, if they have experienced significant increase in credit risk (SICR). We use a loan-level credit risk model and Irish residential mortgage panel data to assign performing loans into the appropriate stage. Using this technique, we characterise approximately 30 per cent of the performing Irish mortgage portfolio at end-2015 as Stage 2.We then calculate backward-looking, static estimations of Stage 2 mortgages between 2008 and 2015. This exercise suggests that loan stage assignment can be highly pro-cyclical. The share of Stage 2 among performing mortgages rises during the economic downturn to peak in 2013, after which large transitions are assigned from Stage 2 into lower-risk performing loans, as the economy improves. JEL Classification: G21

Suggested Citation

  • Gaffney, Edward & McCann, Fergal, 2019. "The cyclicality in SICR: mortgage modelling under IFRS 9," ESRB Working Paper Series 92, European Systemic Risk Board.
  • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201992
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Petr Polak & Jiri Panos, 2019. "The Impact of Expectations on IFRS 9 Loan Loss Provisions," Research and Policy Notes 2019/03, Czech National Bank.
    2. Morais, Bernardo & Ormazabal, Gaizka & Peydro, J.L. & Roa, Monica & Sarmiento Paipilla, Miguel, 2020. "Forward Looking Loan Provisions : Credit Supply and Risk-Taking," Other publications TiSEM fe99a48f-f94a-41d8-bf3f-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Emil Ślązak & Magdalena Skwarzec, 2022. "The effects of IFRS 9 valuation model on cost of risk in commercial banks – the impact of COVID-19," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 53(1), pages 47-78.
    4. Germán López‐Espinosa & Gaizka Ormazabal & Yuki Sakasai, 2021. "Switching from Incurred to Expected Loan Loss Provisioning: Early Evidence," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 757-804, June.
    5. Bernardo Morais & Gaizka Ormazabal & José-Luis Peydró & Mónica Roa & Miguel Sarmiento, 2020. "Forward Looking Loan Provisions: Credit Supply and Risk-taking," Working Papers 1199, Barcelona School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit risk; loan provisioning; mortgage defaults; stress testing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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