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Working Paper 189 - An Empirical Investigation of the Taylor Curve in South Africa

  • Eliphas Ndou
  • Nombulelo Gumata
  • Mthuli Ncube

    ()

  • Eric Olson

This paper investigates the policy trade-off between inflation volatility and output volatility, also referred to as the Taylor curve. In so doing, the paper assesses whether the Taylor curve has shifted over time, how demand and supply shocks affect the volatilities of inflation and the output gap, and the optimality of monetary policy using the Taylor principle. We use multivariate GARCH estimation. The results show that the Taylor curve has shifted over the sample period and shifted inwards under the inflation-targeting regime relative to prior regimes. Furthermore, the results indicate that economic growth performance is superior in periods in which the Taylor curve relationship holds. The effects of demand and supply shocks on both conditional volatilities are transitory. In policy terms, the inward shift of the Taylor curve and evidence based on the Taylor principle suggests optimal monetary policy settings or conduct during the inflation-targeting regime relative to earlier regimes.

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Paper provided by African Development Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 992.

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Date of creation: 23 Dec 2013
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Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:992
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  1. Bunzel, Helle & Enders, Walter, 2005. "The Taylor Rule and 'Opportunistic' Monetary Policy," Staff General Research Papers 12301, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "Inflation/Output Variance Trade-Offs and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 214-34, May.
  3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
  4. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1992. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 4089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. James Peery Cover & C. James Hueng, 2003. "The Correlation between Shocks to Output and the Price Level: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 75-92, July.
  7. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Seminar Papers 646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 2882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Rangan Gupta & Josine Uwilingiye, 2008. "Measuring the Welfare Cost of Inflation in South Africa," Working Papers 200804, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  10. Jim Lee, 2002. "The Inflation-Output Variability Tradeoff and Monetary Policy: Evidence from a GARCH Model," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 175-188, July.
  11. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
  12. Alain Kabundi & Eric Schaling, 2013. "Inflation and Inflation Expectations in South Africa: an Attempt at Explanation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(3), pages 346-355, 09.
  13. Ellyne, Mark & Veller, Carl, 2011. "What is the SARB's inflation targeting policy, and is it appropriate?," MPRA Paper 42134, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Satyajit Chatterjee, 2002. "The Taylor curve and the unemployment-inflation tradeoff," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 26-33.
  15. Rangan Gupta & Josine Uwilingiye, 2010. "Dynamic Time Inconsistency And The South African Reserve Bank," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(1), pages 76-88, 03.
  16. den Haan, Wouter J., 2000. "The comovement between output and prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 3-30, August.
  17. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-86, September.
  18. Pakko, Michael R, 2000. "The Cyclical Relationship between Output and Prices: An Analysis in the Frequency Domain," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 382-99, August.
  19. Olson, Eric & Enders, Walter & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "An empirical investigation of the Taylor curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 380-390.
  20. Nir Klein, 2012. "Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target of the South African Reserve Bank," IMF Working Papers 12/177, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Lee, Jim, 1999. "The inflation and output variability tradeoff: evidence from a Garch model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 63-67, January.
  22. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  23. Cover James Peery & Pecorino Paul, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy and the Correlation between Prices and Output," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, February.
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