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The Inflation-Output Variability Tradeoff and Monetary Policy: Evidence from a GARCH Model


  • Jim Lee

    () (Texas A&M University–Corpus Christi)


This paper empirically investigates the Taylor curve volatility tradeoff in light of the stochastic behavior of the conditional variances of output and inflation. Stressing structural instability between periods before and after the 1979–1982 monetary policy regime change, I implement a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to capture the output-inflation variability tradeoff and to explore the plausible impact of a change in the federal funds rate on the two conditional volatilities. I further evaluate the impacts of anticipated and unanticipated policy actions measured by two alternative policy reaction functions—one from a vector-autoregression-based reduced-form equation and another based on the Taylor rule. In addition to showing a volatility tradeoff relationship, the empirical model reveals different magnitudes of policy effects on output and inflation volatility across the two sample periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Jim Lee, 2002. "The Inflation-Output Variability Tradeoff and Monetary Policy: Evidence from a GARCH Model," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 175-188, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:69:1:y:2002:p:175-188

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge M. Andraz & Nelia M. Norte, 2013. "Output volatility in the OECD: Are the member states becoming less vulnerable to exogenous shocks?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 18(2), pages 91-122, September.
    2. Sweidan, Osama D., 2011. "Inflation variability between central bank's preferences and the structure of the economy: A note," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 630-636.
    3. Ho, Kin Yip & Tsui, Albert K.C., 2004. "Analysis of real GDP growth rates of greater China: An asymmetric conditional volatility approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 424-442.
    4. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Harald Badinger, 2012. "Output Volatility, Economic Growth, and Cross-Country Spillovers: New Evidence for the G7 Countries," FIW Working Paper series 098, FIW.
    5. Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2015. "Is the financial sector Luxembourg?s engine of growth?," BCL working papers 97, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    6. repec:spr:portec:v:16:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10258-017-0128-y is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata & Mthuli Ncube & Eric Olson, 2013. "Working Paper 189 - An Empirical Investigation of the Taylor Curve in South Africa," Working Paper Series 992, African Development Bank.
    8. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Switching impacts of the output gap on inflation: Evidence from Canada, the UK and the US," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 270-285.
    9. Guang Yang, 2009. "Local government expenditure, RBC model and regional business cycle in China-Take Tianjin for example," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 4(4), pages 588-600, December.
    10. Olson, Eric & Enders, Walter & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "An empirical investigation of the Taylor curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 380-390.
    11. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2007. "Lead-lag cross-sectional structure and detection of correlated–anticorrelated regime shifts: Application to the volatilities of inflation and economic growth rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 287-296.

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