A theoretical analysis of trading rules: an application to the moving average case with Markovian returns
A general framework for analysing trading rules is presented. We discuss different return concepts and different statistical processes for returns. We then concentrate on moving average trading rules and show, in the case of moving average models of length two, closed form expressions for the characteristic function of realized returns when the underlying return process follows a switching Markovian Gaussian process. An example is included which illustrates the technique.
Volume (Year): 4 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAMF20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAMF20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blake LeBaron, "undated".
"Technical Trading Rules and Regime Shifts in Foreign Exchange,"
_007, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
- LeBaron, B., 1991. "Technical Trading Rules and Regime Shifts in Foreign Exchange," Working papers 9118, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Corrado, Charles J & Lee, Suk-Hun, 1992. "Filter Rule Tests of the Economic Significance of Serial Dependencies in Daily Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(4), pages 369-387, Winter.
- Charles J. Corrado & Suk-Hun Lee, 1992. "Filter Rule Tests Of The Economic Significance Of Serial Dependencies In Daily Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(4), pages 369-387, December.
- Leuthold, Raymond M & Garcia, Philip & Lu, Richard, 1994. "The Returns and Forecasting Ability of Large Traders in the Frozen Pork Bellies Futures Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 459-473, July.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Neftci, Salih N, 1991. "Naive Trading Rules in Financial Markets and Wiener-Kolmogorov Prediction Theory: A Study of "Technical Analysis."," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 549-571, October.
- J. L. Knight & S. E. Satchell & K. C. Tran, 1995. "Statistical modelling of asymmetric risk in asset returns," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 155-172.
- Knight, J.L. & Stachell, S.E. & Tran, K.C., 1995. "Statistical Modeling of Asymetric Risk in Asset Returns," Papers 95-3, Saskatchewan - Department of Economics.
- Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-181, March.
- Blake LeBaron, "undated". "Do Moving Average Trading Rule Results Imply Nonlinearities in Foreign Exchange?," Working papers _005, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apmtfi:v:4:y:1997:i:3:p:165-180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.