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Administração e Sustentabilidade da Dívida Pública no Brasil: Uma análise para o período 1995-2007

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Alberto Toscano Medrano

    (IPEA)

  • Mário Jorge Cardoso de Mendonça

    (IPEA)

  • Manoel Carlos Pires

    (IPEA)

Abstract

Este artigo tem por objetivo avaliar como a administração da dívida pública no Brasil afetou a sua sustentabilidade no período 1996-2007. A partir de 2003 o gerenciamento da dívida brasileira buscou alterar a combinação entre custo e risco,privilegiando o primeiro. Ao utilizar modelos Markov-Switching para captar esta mudança de comportamento em sua administração, projeta-se a dívida pública a partir de simulações de Monte Carlo. Os resultados indicam que a dívida pública brasileira pode ser considerada sustentável no médio prazo. This paper aims to evaluate how public debt management in Brazil has affected its sustainability in the 1996-2007 period. In 2003 Brazilian public debt management changed the trade off between cost minimization and risk minimization emphasizing the first element. Using a Markov-Switching model in order to model this policy change we access fiscal sustainability with Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that Brazilian public debt is sustainable in the medium run.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Alberto Toscano Medrano & Mário Jorge Cardoso de Mendonça & Manoel Carlos Pires, 2008. "Administração e Sustentabilidade da Dívida Pública no Brasil: Uma análise para o período 1995-2007," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807181514010, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2008:200807181514010
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