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Administração e Sustentabilidade da Dívida Pública no Brasil: Uma análise para o período 1995-2007

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  • Luis Alberto Toscano Medrano

    (IPEA)

  • Mário Jorge Cardoso de Mendonça

    (IPEA)

  • Manoel Carlos Pires

    (IPEA)

Abstract

Este artigo tem por objetivo avaliar como a administração da dívida pública no Brasil afetou a sua sustentabilidade no período 1996-2007. A partir de 2003 o gerenciamento da dívida brasileira buscou alterar a combinação entre custo e risco,privilegiando o primeiro. Ao utilizar modelos Markov-Switching para captar esta mudança de comportamento em sua administração, projeta-se a dívida pública a partir de simulações de Monte Carlo. Os resultados indicam que a dívida pública brasileira pode ser considerada sustentável no médio prazo. This paper aims to evaluate how public debt management in Brazil has affected its sustainability in the 1996-2007 period. In 2003 Brazilian public debt management changed the trade off between cost minimization and risk minimization emphasizing the first element. Using a Markov-Switching model in order to model this policy change we access fiscal sustainability with Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that Brazilian public debt is sustainable in the medium run.
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Suggested Citation

  • Luis Alberto Toscano Medrano & Mário Jorge Cardoso de Mendonça & Manoel Carlos Pires, 2008. "Administração e Sustentabilidade da Dívida Pública no Brasil: Uma análise para o período 1995-2007," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807181514010, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2008:200807181514010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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