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Administração e Sustentabilidade da Dívida Pública no Brasil: Uma Análise para o Período 1995-2007

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  • Mário Jorge Mendonça
  • Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires
  • Luiz Alberto Medrano

Abstract

Este artigo tem por objetivo avaliar como a administração da dívida pública no Brasil afetou a sua sustentabilidade no período 1996-2007. A partir de 2003 o gerenciamento da dívida brasileira buscou alterar a combinação entre custo e risco,privilegiando o primeiro. Ao utilizar modelos Markov-Switching para captar esta mudança de comportamento em sua administração, projeta-se a dívida pública a partir de simulações de Monte Carlo. Os resultados indicam que a dívida pública brasileira pode ser considerada sustentável no médio prazo. This paper aims to evaluate how public debt management in Brazil has affected its sustainability in the 1996-2007 period. In 2003 Brazilian public debt management changed the trade off between cost minimization and risk minimization emphasizing the first element. Using a Markov-Switching model in order to model this policy change we access fiscal sustainability with Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that Brazilian public debt is sustainable in the medium run.

Suggested Citation

  • Mário Jorge Mendonça & Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires & Luiz Alberto Medrano, 2008. "Administração e Sustentabilidade da Dívida Pública no Brasil: Uma Análise para o Período 1995-2007," Discussion Papers 1342, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1342
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