IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v27y2002i2p149-162.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

New directions in business cycle research and financial analysis

Author

Listed:
  • James D. Hamilton

    () (Department of Economics, 0508, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0508)

  • Baldev Raj

    () (School of Business and Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, 75 University Aveneu, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3C5)

Abstract

This paper serves as a partial introduction to and survey of the literature on Markov-switching models. We review the history of this class of models, describe their mathematical structure, and exposit the basic ideas behind estimation and inference. The paper also describes how the approach can be extended in a variety of directions, such as non-Gaussian distributions, time-varying transition probabilities, vector processes, state-space and GARCH models, and surveys recent methodological advances. The contributions of the other papers in this volume are reviewed. A final section offers conclusions and implications for policy.

Suggested Citation

  • James D. Hamilton & Baldev Raj, 2002. "New directions in business cycle research and financial analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 149-162.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:27:y:2002:i:2:p:149-162
    Note: Received: August 2001/Final Version Received: October 2001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/papers/2027002/20270149.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11711 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Julien Chevallier & Stéphane Goutte, 2015. "Detecting jumps and regime switches in international stock markets returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1011-1019, September.
    3. Xie, Yingfu, 2007. "Maximum likelihood estimation and forecasting for GARCH, Markov switching, and locally stationary wavelet processes," Department of Forest Economics publications 1594, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of forest economics.
    4. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Segnon, Mawuli, 2016. "The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions: A mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 10, pages 1-20.
    5. Bertram, Philip & Ma, Jun & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2015. "Real exchange rates and economic fundamentals: An investigation based on a Markov-STAR model," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-565, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    6. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2003. "Regime-Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," NBER Working Papers 9839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Robinson Kruse & Michael Frömmel & Lukas Menkhoff & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2012. "What do we know about real exchange rate nonlinearities?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 457-474, October.
    8. Altavilla, Carlo & Luini, Luigi & Sbriglia, Patrizia, 2006. "Social learning in market games," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 632-652, December.
    9. Yukalov, V.I. & Sornette, D. & Yukalova, E.P., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamical model of regime switching between conventions and business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 206-230, May.
    10. Alexandros E. Milionis, 2003. "Modelling Economic Time Series in the Presence of Variance Non-Stationarity: A Practical Approach," Working Papers 07, Bank of Greece.
    11. repec:zbw:rwidps:0024 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39.
    13. Chao-Chun Chen & Wen-Jen Tsay, 2007. "Estimating Markov-Switching ARMA Models with Extended Algorithms of Hamilton," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 07-A009, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    14. Middendorf, Torge & Schmidt, Torsten, 2004. "Characterizing Movements of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," RWI Discussion Papers 24, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    15. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
    16. Torsten Schmidt & Torge Middendorf, 2004. "Characterizing Movements of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," RWI Discussion Papers 0024, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    17. Firouz Fallahi & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2007. "Using Markov-Switching Models to Identify the Link between Unemployment and Criminality," Working Papers 0701E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    18. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "A Comparison of Threshold Cointegration and Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37603, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    19. Kaizoji, Taisei & Leiss, Matthias & Saichev, Alexander & Sornette, Didier, 2015. "Super-exponential endogenous bubbles in an equilibrium model of fundamentalist and chartist traders," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 289-310.
    20. repec:bla:jtsera:v:38:y:2017:i:3:p:458-478 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Marco Bazzi & Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2017. "Time-Varying Transition Probabilities for Markov Regime Switching Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 458-478, May.
    22. Chen, Chao-Chun & Tsay, Wen-Jen, 2006. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of Markov-switching processes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 83-89, April.
    23. Bradley, Michael D. & Jansen, Dennis W., 2004. "Forecasting with a nonlinear dynamic model of stock returns and industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 321-342.
    24. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis: Threshold Models vs. Markov-Switching Models," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44198, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov-switching; regime-switching; business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:27:y:2002:i:2:p:149-162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.