IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ukm/jlekon/v55y2021i2p51-63.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Oil Consumption Respond Asymmetrically to Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Income Differentials?

Author

Listed:
  • Uche, Emmanuel

    (Department of Economics Abia State University P.M.B 2000, Uturu, NIGERIA.)

  • Ihezukwu, Veronica Adaku

    (Department of Economics Abia State University P.M.B 2000, Uturu, NIGERIA.)

  • Osunkwo, Folusho Olufunke Chinyere

    (Department of Economics Abia State University P.M.B 2000, Uturu, NIGERIA.)

  • Okoronkwo, Chijioke

    (Central Bank of Nigeria Plot 33, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Way Central Business District P.M.B. 0187, Garki Abuja, NIGERIA)

Abstract

This study empirically evaluates the dynamic effects oil price, income and exchange rate on oil consumption in Algeria, Angola, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tunisia. Specifically, it tries to reveal the differential effects of rising and falling oil prices, economic prosperities and adversaries, as well as, exchange rate appreciations and depreciation on oil consumption in the selected countries. The current study relied on monthly data sourced from OPEC and IMFIFS data banks and analyzed within the Nonlinear ARDL framework. The NARDL model traces asymmetry in macroeconomic relationships by isolating the effects of positive changes from negative changes. The empirical findings reveal that the effects of oil price deviations on oil consumption is asymmetric in the short-run in Angola and Tunisia, and in the long-run in Nigeria. Furthermore, income and exchange rate deviations affect oil consumption asymmetrically in Algeria, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. However, exchange rate deviation does not have an asymmetric effect on oil consumption in Algeria. The overall implication of such asymmetric effects is that positive deviations could not offset negative deviations and vice-versa. Therefore, to guide against general welfare losses, policymakers should take cognizance of such nonlinear and asymmetric effects in their policy moderations.

Suggested Citation

  • Uche, Emmanuel & Ihezukwu, Veronica Adaku & Osunkwo, Folusho Olufunke Chinyere & Okoronkwo, Chijioke, 2021. "Does Oil Consumption Respond Asymmetrically to Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Income Differentials?," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(2), pages 51-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukm:jlekon:v:55:y:2021:i:2:p:51-63
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/JEM-2021-5502-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ukm.my/jem/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/jeko_552-5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/JEM-2021-5502-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    2. Laurence Levin & Matthew S. Lewis & Frank A. Wolak, 2017. "High Frequency Evidence on the Demand for Gasoline," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 314-347, August.
    3. Muhammad Shahbaz & Amatul Razzaq Chaudhary & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Is energy consumption sensitive to foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation in Pakistan?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(52), pages 5641-5658, June.
    4. Boyoon Chang & Sung Jin Kang & Tae Yong Jung, 2019. "Price and Output Elasticities of Energy Demand for Industrial Sectors in OECD Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Adeyemi, Olutomi I. & Hunt, Lester C., 2014. "Accounting for asymmetric price responses and underlying energy demand trends in OECD industrial energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 435-444.
    6. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Morovati, Mohammad & Rafizadeh, Nima, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Shocks and Gasoline Consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Bohl, Martin T., 2000. "German monetary unification and the stability of the German M3 money demand function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 203-208, February.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Salisu, Afees A. & Ayinde, Taofeek O., 2016. "Modeling energy demand: Some emerging issues," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1470-1480.
    10. Dermot Gately & Hiliard G. Huntington, 2002. "The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 19-55.
    11. Brantley Liddle and Hillard Huntington, 2020. "Revisiting the Income Elasticity of Energy Consumption: A Heterogeneous, Common Factor, Dynamic OECD & non-OECD Country Panel Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 207-230.
    12. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel, 2012. "Demand for gasoline is more price-inelastic than commonly thought," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 201-207.
    13. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata Kumar, 2015. "Asymmetric impact of crude price on oil product pricing in the United States: An application of multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 436-443.
    14. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2018. "Asymmetry Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Production in Emerging Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 1442-1459, May.
    16. Kakali Kanjilal & Sajal Ghosh, 2018. "Revisiting income and price elasticity of gasoline demand in India: new evidence from cointegration tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1869-1888, December.
    17. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2016. "Asymmetric oil product pricing in India: Evidence from a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-328.
    18. Araç, Ayşen & Hasanov, Mübariz, 2014. "Asymmetries in the dynamic interrelationship between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 259-269.
    19. Atalla, Tarek N. & Gasim, Anwar A. & Hunt, Lester C., 2018. "Gasoline demand, pricing policy, and social welfare in Saudi Arabia: A quantitative analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 123-133.
    20. Ibrar Hussain & Jawad Hussain & Arshad Ali Khan & Yahya Khan, 2019. "An analysis of the asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on G.D.P. in Pakistan: application of non-linear A.R.D.L," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 3100-3117, January.
    21. repec:idn:journl:v:22:y:2019:i:3b:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Uche & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Lionel Effiom, 2023. "Household consumption and exchange rate extreme dynamics: Multiple asymmetric threshold non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag model perspective," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3437-3450, July.
    2. Emmanuel Uche & Philip Chimobi Omoke & Charles Silva‐Opuala & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al‐Faryan, 2024. "Re‐estimating the pollution haven–halo hypotheses for Brazil via a machine learning procedure," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 1274-1292, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaohui GONG & Bisharat Hussain CHANG & Xi CHEN & Kaiyang ZHONG, 2023. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rates on Energy Demand in E7 Countries: New Evidence from Multiple Thresholds Nonlinear ARDL Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 125-142, June.
    2. Liddle, Brantley & Sadorsky, Perry, 2020. "How much do asymmetric changes in income and energy prices affect energy demand?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    3. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Zeidan, Rodrigo, 2018. "How (a)symmetric is the response of import demand to changes in its determinants? Evidence from European energy imports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 379-394.
    4. Huntington, Hillard & Liddle, Brantley, 2022. "How energy prices shape OECD economic growth: Panel evidence from multiple decades," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    5. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata Kumar, 2019. "Asymmetric oil price transmission to the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar: A multiple threshold NARDL modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Huntington, Hillard G., 2024. "US gasoline response to vehicle fuel efficiency: A contribution to the direct rebound effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Emmanuel Uche & Sunday Ikedinobi Nwamiri, 2022. "Dynamic Effects of Exchange Rate Movements on Productivity Levels: New Evidence From Nigeria Based on NARDL," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 7(1), pages 96-111, January.
    8. Omoke Philip Chimobi & Uche Emmanuel, 2020. "Asymmetric impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables: NARDL exposition," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(1), pages 171-189.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Gozgor, Giray & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Human capital and export diversification as new determinants of energy demand in the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 335-349.
    10. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Morovati, Mohammad & Rafizadeh, Nima, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Shocks and Gasoline Consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Youshu Li & Junjie Guo, 2022. "The asymmetric impacts of oil price and shocks on inflation in BRICS: a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 1377-1395, March.
    12. Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C., 2021. "Modelling U.S. gasoline demand: A structural time series analysis with asymmetric price responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    13. Lin, Boqiang & Li, Zhensheng, 2020. "Analysis of the natural gas demand and subsidy in China: A multi-sectoral perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    14. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2016. "Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy: A counterfactual analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 382-399.
    15. Anthony N. Rezitis, 2019. "Investigating price transmission in the Finnish dairy sector: an asymmetric NARDL approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 861-900, September.
    16. Brantley Liddle & Fakhri Hasanov, 2022. "Industry electricity price and output elasticities for high-income and middle-income countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1293-1319, March.
    17. Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Alimi, Olorunfemi Yasiru & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of exchange rate on trade balance and output growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    18. Dong, Minyi & Chang, Chun-Ping & Gong, Qiang & Chu, Yin, 2019. "Revisiting global economic activity and crude oil prices: A wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 134-149.
    19. Das, Narasingha & Gangopadhyay, Partha & Alghamdi, Thamer & Sarwar, Suleman & Haseeb, Mohammad & Barut, Abdulkadir & Dey, Labani, 2023. "Understanding the role of efficiency in the electricity generation process for promoting human development in India: Findings from the novel multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL modelling," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    20. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Current Issues in Time-Series Analysis for the Energy-Growth Nexus; Asymmetries and Nonlinearities Case Study: Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82221, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy demand; asymmetry; exchange rate; income differentials; nonlinear ARDL; oil prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ukm:jlekon:v:55:y:2021:i:2:p:51-63. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Muhammad Asri Abd Ghani (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feukmmy.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.