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A Flexible Non Linear Model to Test the Expectation Hypothesis of Interest Rates

Listed author(s):
  • Jean-michel Sahut

    ()

    (Amiens School of Management and CEREGE EA 1722 University of Poitiers)

Conventional approaches to examining the expectation hypothesis of interest rates assume a parametric linear specification among variables. In contrast, this paper tests the hypothesis using a flexible nonlinear inference approach proposed by Hamilton (2001). We examine the impact of the nonlinearity of interest rates to explain the variability of risk premia on market rates. It is assumed that the term structure of interest rates can be identified by two factors, the risk-free rate and its volatility. The results of the linearity test against nonlinear alternatives suggest that there is clear evidence of nonlinearity. Our empirical study shows that correctly accounting for the nonlinearity of the term structure of interest rates may explain the variability of risk premia and the specific characteristics of interest rate dynamics on the U.S. market.

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File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2010/Volume30/EB-10-V30-I3-P211.pdf
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Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 30 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 2297-2311

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00261
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  11. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  12. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March.
  13. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  14. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. " Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-1282, September.
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