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Fracking, China and the Global Economy

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  • Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti
  • Trejos, Alberto

Abstract

We develop an intertemporal model of the international economy, where tradeable intermediate goods are produced with capital, labor and hydrocarbons, and used in the production of non-tradeable consumption and investment goods. The model is calibrated to 176 countries, grouped according to their characteristics. We conduct simulations about key events that are currently reshaping the world e.g., fracking and China's new model of development. The model reproduces closely the recent fall in oil prices and delivers results about the impact on global output and consumption, but also about the propagation to different countries through terms of trade and capital accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Trejos, Alberto, 2016. "Fracking, China and the Global Economy," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 777, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:777
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tuomas Komulainen & ) & Johanna Lukkarila, 2003. "What drives financial crises in emerging markets?," Macroeconomics 0304010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Loren Brandt & Trevor Tombe & Xiadong Zhu, 2013. "Factor Market Distortions Across Time, Space, and Sectors in China," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58, January.
    3. Claustre Bajona & Timothy Kehoe, 2010. "Trade, Growth, and Convergence in a Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 487-513, July.
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    6. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, June.
    7. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    8. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2011. "Growing Like China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 196-233, February.
    9. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
    10. Beaudry, Paul & Collard, Fabrice, 2006. "Globalization, returns to accumulation and the world distribution of output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 879-909, July.
    11. Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira & Alberto Trejos, 2011. "Gains from Trade and Measured Total Factor Productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(3), pages 496-510, July.
    12. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
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