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On the sources of the aggregate risk premium: Risk aversion, bubbles or regime-switching?

Author

Listed:
  • Caravello, Tomás E.
  • Driffill, John
  • Kenc, Turalay
  • Sola, Martin

Abstract

We develop and estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model that uses historical US financial data and assumes recursive utility, allowing for priced regime-switching risk and intrinsic bubbles. We also estimate several restricted versions, including only a subset of these features. Priced regime-switching risk is essential to the equity risk premium, explaining more than fifty per cent of it. Furthermore, a model that does not consider regime switching would overestimate the public's risk aversion, mistakenly assigning the observed risk premium to high-risk aversion instead of priced regime-switching. We also find that intrinsic bubbles are statistically significant, and even though they are not crucial in explaining the risk premium, they substantially improve the model's fit at the end of the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Caravello, Tomás E. & Driffill, John & Kenc, Turalay & Sola, Martin, 2024. "On the sources of the aggregate risk premium: Risk aversion, bubbles or regime-switching?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:166:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924001118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104919
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity risk premium; Macroeconomic risk; Stochastic differential utility; Markov chain; Intrinsic bubbles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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