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Rethinking the liquidity puzzle: application of a new measure of the economic money stock

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  • Kelly, Logan
  • Barnett, William A.
  • Keating, John

Abstract

Historically, attempts to solve the liquidity puzzle have focused on narrowly defined monetary aggregates, such as non-borrowed reserves, the monetary base, or M1. Many of these efforts have failed to find a short-term negative correlation between interest rates and monetary policy innovations. More recent research uses sophisticated macroeconomic and econometric modeling. However, little research has investigated the role measurement error plays in the liquidity puzzle, since in nearly every case, work investigating the liquidity puzzle has used one of the official monetary aggregates, which have been shown to exhibit significant measurement error. This paper examines the role that measurement error plays in the liquidity puzzle by (i) providing a theoretical framework explaining how the official simple-sum methodology can lead to a liquidity puzzle, and (ii) testing for the liquidity effect by estimating an unrestricted VAR.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly, Logan & Barnett, William A. & Keating, John, 2010. "Rethinking the liquidity puzzle: application of a new measure of the economic money stock," MPRA Paper 22087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22087
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Keating, John W. & Kelly, Logan J. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2014. "Solving the price puzzle with an alternative indicator of monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 188-194.
    2. Makram El-shagi & Logan J Kelly, 2014. "Liquidity in the liquidity crisis: evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates in Germany and the European crisis countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 63-72.
    3. Scharnagl, Michael & Mandler, Martin, 2015. "The relationship of simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates with real GDP and inflation: a wavelet analysis for the US," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112879, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Barnett, William & Su, Liting, 2017. "Financial Firm Production of Inside Monetary and Credit Card Services: An Aggregation Theoretic Approach," MPRA Paper 82061, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Kelly, Logan J., 2015. "The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(01), pages 58-78, January.
    6. Antonis Michis, 2011. "Multiscale Analysis of the Liquidity Effect," Working Papers 2011-5, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    7. Antonis Michis, 2015. "Multiscale Analysis of the Liquidity Effect in the UK Economy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 615-633, April.
    8. Kemal Bagzibagli, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism and time variation in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 781-823, November.
    9. Antonio Ribba, 2017. "What Drives US Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 765-777.
    10. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Kelly, Logan J., 2012. "Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    11. Paul, Sunil & Ramachandran, M., 2011. "Currency equivalent monetary aggregates as leading indicators of inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2041-2048, July.
    12. Muhanji, Stella & Malikane, Christopher & Ojah, Kalu, 2013. "Price and liquidity puzzles of a monetary shock: Evidence from indebted African economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 620-630.
    13. William Barnett & Liting Su, 2017. "Financial Firm Production Of Inside Monetary And Credit Card Services: An Aggregation Theoretic Approach1," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201707, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity Puzzle; Monetary Policy; Monetary Aggregation; Money Stock; Divisia Index Numbers;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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