IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sce/scecfa/51.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The discounted economic stock of money with VAR forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • William A. Barnett

    (U. of Kansas)

  • Unja Chae

    (Intel Corporation)

  • John W. Keating

    (U. of Kansas)

Abstract

We measure the economic capital stock of money implied by the Divisia monetary aggregate service flow, in a manner consistent with asset pricing theory. Based on Barnett’s [4] definition of the economic stock of money, we estimate the expected discounted flow of expenditure on the services of monetary assets, where expenditure on monetary services is evaluated at the user costs of the monetary components. We use forecasts based on martingale expectations, asymmetric vector autoregressive expectations, and the Bayesian vector autoregressive expectations. We find the resulting capital-stock index to be surprisingly robust to the modeling of expectations

Suggested Citation

  • William A. Barnett & Unja Chae & John W. Keating, 2006. "The discounted economic stock of money with VAR forecasting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 51, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:51
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/wpawuwpma/0508021.htm
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://repec.org/sce2006/up.27146.1138565985.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William A. Barnett & Shu Wu, 2011. "On User Costs of Risky Monetary Assets," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 3, pages 85-105 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. repec:wsi:gjexxx:v:01:y:2012:i:01:n:s225136121250005x is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Schunk, Donald L, 2001. "The Relative Forecasting Performance of the Divisia and Simple Sum Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 272-283, May.
    4. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    5. William Barnett & Apostolos Serletis & W. Erwin Diewert, 2005. "The Theory of Monetary Aggregation (book front matter)," Macroeconomics 0511008, EconWPA.
    6. Rotemberg, Julio J & Driscoll, John C & Poterba, James M, 1995. "Money, Output, and Prices: Evidence from a New Monetary Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 67-83, January.
    7. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," Macroeconomics 0503017, EconWPA.
    9. William A Barnett & Unja Chae & John W Keating, 2012. "Forecast Design In Monetary Capital Stock Measurement," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., pages 1-53.
    10. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    11. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August.
    12. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
    13. Barnett, William A., 1978. "The user cost of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 145-149.
    14. Keating, John W., 2000. "Macroeconomic Modeling with Asymmetric Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-28, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:wsi:gjexxx:v:01:y:2012:i:01:n:s225136121250005x is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Barnett, William A., 2006. "Supply of Money," MPRA Paper 419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Barnett, William & Liu, Jinan, 2017. "User Cost of Credit Card Services under Risk with Intertemporal Nonseparability," MPRA Paper 81461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kelly, Logan J, 2008. "The Currency Equivalent Index and the Current Stock of Money," MPRA Paper 7176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kelly, Logan J. & Barnett, William A. & Keating, John W., 2011. "Rethinking the liquidity puzzle: Application of a new measure of the economic money stock," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 768-774, April.
    6. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet, 2011. "International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 1, pages 1-51 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Barnett, William A. & Keating, John W. & Kelly, Logan J., 2008. "Toward a bias corrected currency equivalent index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, pages 448-451.
    8. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Kelly, Logan J., 2012. "Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    9. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2011. "How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 6-23, March.
    10. William A Barnett & Unja Chae & John W Keating, 2012. "Forecast Design In Monetary Capital Stock Measurement," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., pages 1-53.
    11. Smith, Andrew Lee & Keating, John W. & Kelly, Logan J. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2014. "A model of monetary policy shocks for financial crises and normal conditions," Research Working Paper RWP 14-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    12. Kelly, Logan J, 2008. "The Stock of Money and Why You Should Care," MPRA Paper 11455, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2008. "The End of the Great Moderation: “We told you so.”," MPRA Paper 11642, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary aggregation; discounted economic capital stock; VAR; robustness; capital asset pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sceeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.