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Marking-to-Market Government Guarantees to Financial Systems.Theory and Evidence for Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Angelo Baglioni

    () (DISCE, Università Cattolica)

  • Umberto Cherubini

    ()

Abstract

We propose a new index for measuring the systemic risk of default of the banking sector, which is based on a homogeneous version of multivariate intensity based models (Cuadras – Augé distribution). We compute the index for 10 European countries, exploiting the information incorporated in the CDS premia of 44 large banks over the period January 2007 – September 2010. In this way, we provide a market based measure of the liability incurred by the Governments, due to the implicit bail-out guarantees they provide to the financial sector. We find that during the financial crisis the systemic component of the default risk in the banking sector has significantly increased in all countries, with the exception of Germany and the Netherlands. As a consequence, the Governments’ liability implicit in the bail out guarantee amounts to a quite relevant share of GDP in several countries: it is huge for Ireland, lower but still important for the other PIIGS (Italy is the least affected within this group) and for the UK. Finally, our estimate is very close to the overall amount of money already committed in the rescue plans adopted in Europe between Octo ber 2008 and March 2010, despite strong cross-country differences: in particular, Germany and Ireland seem to have committed an amount of resources much larger than needed; to the contrary, the Italian Government has committed much less than it should.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelo Baglioni & Umberto Cherubini, 2011. "Marking-to-Market Government Guarantees to Financial Systems.Theory and Evidence for Europe," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0103, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie3:ief0103
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    File URL: http://www.unicatt.it/Istituti/EconomiaFinanza/Quaderni/ief0103.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antje Berndt & Iulian Obreja, 2010. "Decomposing European CDS Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 189-233.
    2. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2009. "An assessment of financial sector rescue programmes," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 48, february.
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    5. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    6. Marcello Esposito, 2002. "Basic Insights in Pricing Basket Credit Derivatives," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 31(2), pages 255-276, July.
    7. Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2009. "The Janus-headed salvation: sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-09," Working Paper Series 1127, European Central Bank.
    8. Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
    9. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2006. "A New Framework for Analyzing and Managing Macrofinancial Risks of an Economy," NBER Working Papers 12637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Michael T. Gapen & Dale F. Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Yingbin Xiao, 2005. "Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims," IMF Working Papers 05/155, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Baglioni, Angelo & Cherubini, Umberto, 2013. "Within and between systemic country risk. Theory and evidence from the sovereign crisis in Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1581-1597.
    2. Tausch, Arno, 2011. "The efficiency and effectiveness of social spending in the EU-27 and the OECD – a 2011 reanalysis," MPRA Paper 33516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "The impact of sovereign credit risk on bank funding conditions," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 43.
    4. Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2011. "The Debate on the Crisis: Recent Reappraisals of the Concept of Functional Finance," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0105, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    5. Arslanalp, Serkan & Liao, Yin, 2014. "Banking sector contingent liabilities and sovereign risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 316-330.
    6. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank bail out; Government budget; systemic risk; financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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