Fiscal Policy Sustainability, Economic Cycle and Financial Crises: The Case of the GIPS
We extend previous work on the sustainability of the government's intertemporal budget constraint by allowing for non-linear adjustment of the fiscal variables, conditional on (i) the sign of budgetary disequilibria and (ii) the phase of the economic cycle. Further, our endogenously estimated threshold for the non-linear adjustment is not fixed; instead it is allowed to vary over time and during financial crises. Our analysis presents particular interest within the current economic scenario of financial crises, poor growth and debt crises. Our empirical analysis, applied to the GIPS, shows evidence of a threshold behaviour for the GIPS, that only correct "large" unbalances, which, in the case of Greece and Portugal, are higher than the EGSP criteria. Financial crises further relax the threshold for adjustment: during financial crises, only "very large" budgetary unbalances are corrected.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.rcfea.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008.
"What do we really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2226, CESifo Group Munich.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
- António AFONSO & Christophe RAULT, . "What do we Really Know About Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic," EcoMod2008 23800000, EcoMod.
- Christophe Rault & Antonio Alfonso, 2007. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp893, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- António AFONSO & Christophe RAULT, 2008. "What do we Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU ? A Panel Data Diagnostic," Working Papers 1757, Orleans Economic Laboratorys, University of Orleans.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2007. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Working Papers hal-00322091, HAL.
- Afonso, António & Rault, Christophe, 2007. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Working Paper Series 0820, European Central Bank.
- Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991.
"Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-88, December.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000.
"Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
- van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
- Antonio Afonso, 2004.
"Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004
57, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- Michael G. Arghyrou & Kul B Luintel, 2002.
"Government Solvency: Revisiting some EMU Countries,"
Economics and Finance Discussion Papers
02-24, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Arghyrou, Michael G. & Luintel, Kul B., 2007. "Government solvency: Revisiting some EMU countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 387-410, June.
- Arghyrou, Michael G & Kul B Luintel, 2003. "Government Solvency: Revisiting some EMU Countries," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 8, Royal Economic Society.
- Michael G. Arghyrou & Kul B Luintel, 2002. "Government Solvency: Revisiting some EMU Countries," Public Policy Discussion Papers 02-24, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2003.
"Is the Budget Deficit Sustainable when Fiscal Policy is nonlinear? The Case of Spain, 1961-2001,"
Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces
E2003/32, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Diaz-Roldan, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2006. "Is the budget deficit sustainable when fiscal policy is non-linear? The case of Spain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 596-608, September.
- Bravo, Ana Bela Santos & Silvestre, Antonio Luis, 2002. "Intertemporal sustainability of fiscal policies: some tests for European countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 517-528, September.
- Carmen M. & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011.
"The Liquidation of Government Debt,"
Working Paper Series
WP11-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Vito Polito & Mike Wickens, 2007. "Measuring the Fiscal Stance," Discussion Papers 07/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973, April.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
- George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin & Andy Snell, 2003. "Testing for Cointegration in Nonlinear STAR Error Correction Models," Working Papers 497, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Dahl, Christian M. & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 2003. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in regression models based on the theory of random fields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 141-164, May.
- Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986.
"On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September.
- James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:54_12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marco Savioli)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.