IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/msh/ebswps/2017-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inference on a Semiparametric Model with Global Power Law and Local Nonparametric Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Jiti Gao
  • Oliver Linton
  • Bin Peng

Abstract

This paper studies a model with both a parametric global trend and a nonparametric local trend. This model may be of interest in a number of applications in economics, finance, ecology, and geology. The model nests the parametric global trend model considered in Phillips (2007) and Robinson (2012), and the nonparametric local trend model. We first propose two hypothesis tests to detect whether either of the special cases are appropriate. For the case where both null hypotheses are rejected, we propose an estimation method to capture both aspects of the time trend. We establish consistency and some distribution theory in the presence of a large sample. Moreover, we examine the proposed hypothesis tests and estimation methods through both simulated and real data examples. Finally, we discuss some potential extensions and issues when modelling time effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiti Gao & Oliver Linton & Bin Peng, 2017. "Inference on a Semiparametric Model with Global Power Law and Local Nonparametric Trends," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2017-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.monash.edu/business/econometrics-and-business-statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp10-17.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Qi, 1999. "Consistent model specification tests for time series econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 101-147, September.
    2. Fan, Yanqin & Li, Qi, 1996. "Consistent Model Specification Tests: Omitted Variables and Semiparametric Functional Forms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 865-890, July.
    3. Cai, Zongwu, 2007. "Trending time-varying coefficient time series models with serially correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 163-188, January.
    4. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yang, Cynthia Fan, 2020. "Econometric analysis of production networks with dominant units," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 507-541.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Sainan Jin, 2021. "Business Cycles, Trend Elimination, And The Hp Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 469-520, May.
    6. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    7. Chen, Jia & Gao, Jiti & Li, Degui, 2012. "Semiparametric trending panel data models with cross-sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 71-85.
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    9. Gao, Jiti, 2007. "Nonlinear time series: semiparametric and nonparametric methods," MPRA Paper 39563, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2007.
    10. Phillips, Peter C. B., 2001. "Trending time series and macroeconomic activity: Some present and future challenges," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 21-27, January.
    11. Su, Liangjun & Jin, Sainan & Zhang, Yonghui, 2015. "Specification test for panel data models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 222-244.
    12. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Li, Degui & Gao, Jiti, 2017. "Estimating smooth structural change in cointegration models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 180-195.
    13. Greene, William, 2005. "Reconsidering heterogeneity in panel data estimators of the stochastic frontier model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 269-303, June.
    14. James D. Hamilton, 2017. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," NBER Working Papers 23429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Feng, Guohua & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Productivity trends in U.S. manufacturing: Evidence from the NQ and AIM cost functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 281-311, January.
    16. Su, Liangjun & Jin, Sainan, 2012. "Sieve estimation of panel data models with cross section dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 34-47.
    17. Chen, Jia & Gao, Jiti & Li, Degui, 2012. "A New Diagnostic Test For Cross-Section Uncorrelatedness In Nonparametric Panel Data Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(5), pages 1144-1163, October.
    18. Robinson, Peter M., 1997. "Large-sample inference for nonparametric regression with dependent errors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 302, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chaohua Dong & Jiti Gao & Oliver Linton & Bin peng, 2020. "On Time Trend of COVID-19: A Panel Data Study," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Gao, Jiti & Liu, Fei & Peng, Bin & Yan, Yayi, 2023. "Binary response models for heterogeneous panel data with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1654-1679.
    3. Chen, Zhihong & Xia, Huizhu, 2020. "Trend instrumental variable regression with an application to the US New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 595-604.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feng, Guohua & Gao, Jiti & Peng, Bin & Zhang, Xiaohui, 2017. "A varying-coefficient panel data model with fixed effects: Theory and an application to US commercial banks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 68-82.
    2. Isabel Casas & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng & Shangyu Xie, 2021. "Time‐varying income elasticities of healthcare expenditure for the OECD and Eurozone," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 328-345, April.
    3. Jia Chen & Degui Li & Jiti Gao, 2013. "Non- and Semi-Parametric Panel Data Models: A Selective Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 18/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    4. Chen, Jia & Gao, Jiti & Li, Degui, 2012. "Semiparametric trending panel data models with cross-sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 71-85.
    5. Chaohua Dong & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng, 2018. "Varying-coefficient panel data models with partially observed factor structure," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/18, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    6. Feng, Guohua & Gao, Jiti & Peng, Bin, 2022. "An integrated panel data approach to modelling economic growth," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 379-397.
    7. Fei Liu & Jiti Gao & Yanrong Yang, 2019. "Nonparametric Estimation in Panel Data Models with Heterogeneity and Time Varyingness," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/19, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    8. Arteaga-Molina, Luis A. & Rodríguez-Poo, Juan M., 2019. "Empirical likelihood based inference for a categorical varying-coefficient panel data model with fixed effects," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 110-124.
    9. Gao, Jiti, 2007. "Nonlinear time series: semiparametric and nonparametric methods," MPRA Paper 39563, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2007.
    10. Dong, Chaohua & Gao, Jiti & Peng, Bin, 2015. "Semiparametric single-index panel data models with cross-sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 301-312.
    11. Degui Li & Jia Chen & Zhengyan Lin, 2009. "Variable selection in partially time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 553-566.
    12. Feng, Guohua & Peng, Bin & Su, Liangjun & Yang, Thomas Tao, 2019. "Semi-parametric single-index panel data models with interactive fixed effects: Theory and practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 607-622.
    13. Patrick Saart & Jiti Gao & Nam Hyun Kim, 2014. "Semiparametric methods in nonlinear time series analysis: a selective review," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 141-169, March.
    14. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang & Chen, Li, 2023. "Stock return predictability and cyclical movements in valuation ratios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-53.
    15. Baltagi, Badi H. & Feng, Qu & Kao, Chihwa, 2016. "Estimation of heterogeneous panels with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 176-195.
    16. Xuan Liang & Jiti Gao & Xiaodong Gong, 2022. "Semiparametric Spatial Autoregressive Panel Data Model with Fixed Effects and Time-Varying Coefficients," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 1784-1802, October.
    17. Lu, Xun & Su, Liangjun, 2016. "Shrinkage estimation of dynamic panel data models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 148-175.
    18. Gao, Jiti & Casas, Isabel, 2008. "Specification testing in discretized diffusion models: Theory and practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 131-140, November.
    19. Jiang, Bin & Yang, Yanrong & Gao, Jiti & Hsiao, Cheng, 2021. "Recursive estimation in large panel data models: Theory and practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(2), pages 439-465.
    20. Chaohua Dong & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng, 2015. "Partially Linear Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectional Dependence and Nonstationarity," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 7/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global mean sea level; nonparametric kernel estimation; nonstationarity.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2017-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Professor Xibin Zhang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dxmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.