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Simultaneous Testing of Mean and Variance Structures in Nonlinear Time Series Models

Author Info

  • Song Xi Chen

    (Guanghua School of Management, Peking University)

  • Jiti Gao

    ()

    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

Abstract

This paper proposes a nonparametric simultaneous test for parametric specification of the conditional mean and variance functions in a time series regression model. The test is based on an empirical likelihood (EL) statistic that measures the goodness of fit between the parametric estimates and the nonparametric kernel estimates of the mean and variance functions. A unique feature of the test is its ability to distribute natural weights automatically between the mean and the variance components of the goodness of fit. To reduce the dependence of the test on a single pair of smoothing bandwidths, we construct an adaptive test by maximizing a standardized version of the empirical likelihood test statistic over a set of smoothing bandwidths. The test procedure is based on a bootstrap calibration to the distribution of the empirical likelihood test statistic. We demonstrate that the empirical likelihood test is able to distinguish local alternatives which are different from the null hypothesis at an optimal rate.

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File URL: http://www.economics.adelaide.edu.au/research/papers/doc/wp2010-28.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Adelaide, School of Economics in its series School of Economics Working Papers with number 2010-28.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:adl:wpaper:2010-28
Contact details of provider: Postal: Adelaide SA 5005
Phone: (618) 8303 5540
Web page: http://www.economics.adelaide.edu.au/

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Keywords: Bootstrap; empirical likelihood; goodness{of{ t test; kernel estimation; least squares empirical likelihood; rate-optimal test;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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  1. J. Carlos Escanciano & Carlos Velasco, 2010. "Specification tests of parametric dynamic conditional quantiles," Post-Print hal-00732534, HAL.
  2. Ahn, Dong-Hyun & Gao, Bin, 1999. "A Parametric Nonlinear Model of Term Structure Dynamics," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 721-62.
  3. Chen, Song Xi & Cui, Hengjian, 2007. "On the second-order properties of empirical likelihood with moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 492-516, December.
  4. Jiti Gao & Irene Gijbels, 2009. "Bandwidth Selection in Nonparametric Kernel Testing," School of Economics Working Papers 2009-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  5. Fan, Yanqin & Li, Qi, 1996. "Consistent Model Specification Tests: Omitted Variables and Semiparametric Functional Forms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 865-90, July.
  6. Chen, Song Xi & Härdle, Wolfgang & Kleinow, Torsten, 2000. "An empirical likelihood goodness-of-fit test for time series," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,1, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  7. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355, March.
  8. Einmahl, J.H.J. & McKeague, I.W., 2003. "Empirical likelihood based hypothesis testing," Other publications TiSEM 2ddb34d8-8ae7-46e3-8004-c, School of Economics and Management.
  9. Li, Qi, 1999. "Consistent model specification tests for time series econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 101-147, September.
  10. Gao, Jiti & Tong, Howell & Wolff, Rodney, 2002. "Model Specification Tests in Nonparametric Stochastic Regression Models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 324-359, November.
  11. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 1999. "Transition Densities for Interest Rate and Other Nonlinear Diffusions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1361-1395, 08.
  12. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 1999. "Consistent hypothesis testing in semiparametric and nonparametric models for econometric time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 373-401, August.
  13. Gao, Jiti, 2007. "Nonlinear time series: semiparametric and nonparametric methods," MPRA Paper 39563, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2007.
  14. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-117075 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Yuichi Kitamura, 2001. "Asymptotic Optimality of Empirical Likelihood for Testing Moment Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1661-1672, November.
  16. Chen, Song Xi & Gao, Jiti & Tang, Chenghong, 2005. "A test for model specification of diffusion processes," MPRA Paper 11976, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2007.
  17. Gao, Jiti & King, Maxwell, 2004. "Adaptive Testing In Continuous-Time Diffusion Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 844-882, October.
  18. Zhang, Chunming & Dette, Holger, 2004. "A power comparison between nonparametric regression tests," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 289-301, February.
  19. Donald, Stephen G. & Imbens, Guido W. & Newey, Whitney K., 2003. "Empirical likelihood estimation and consistent tests with conditional moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 55-93, November.
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  21. Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2006. "Joint Diagnostic Tests for Conditional Mean and Variance Specifications," Faculty Working Papers 02/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  22. Li, Q. & Wang, Suojin, 1998. "A simple consistent bootstrap test for a parametric regression function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 145-165, August.
  23. Jianqing Fan & Qiwei Yao, 1998. "Efficient estimation of conditional variance functions in stochastic regression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6635, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  24. Song Xi Chen & Hengjian Cui, 2006. "On Bartlett correction of empirical likelihood in the presence of nuisance parameters," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 93(1), pages 215-220, March.
  25. Vidar Hjellvik & Qiwei Yao & Dag Tjostheim, 1998. "Linearity testing using local polynominal approximation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6638, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  26. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Chen, Song Xi & Gao, Jiti, 2007. "An adaptive empirical likelihood test for parametric time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 950-972, December.
  28. J. Carlos Escanciano & Carlos Velasco, 2010. "Specification tests of parametric dynamic conditional quantiles," Post-Print peer-00732534, HAL.
  29. Li, Gang, 2003. "Nonparametric likelihood ratio goodness-of-fit tests for survival data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 166-182, July.
  30. Bruce Brown & Song Chen, 1998. "Combined and Least Squares Empirical Likelihood," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 697-714, December.
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