Correlation Structure between Inflation and Oil Futures Returns: An Equilibrium Approach
We use a general equilibrium model of a monetary economy to understand the economics behind the correlation between in nation and oil futures returns. Oil is used as both, an input to the production of capital and as a consumption good. We estimate our model using maximum likelihood with the following datasets: crude oil futures prices, nominal interest rates, in nation rates and money supply growth rates. We nd that some of the positive correlation found in empirical studies is due to the fact that oil is in the consumption basket; however, this accounts only for a minor part of it. There exist other important sources of correlation related to monetary shocks and output shocks. In particular, we nd that the correlation is extremely sensitive to the reaction of the central bank to output shocks, while the reaction to in nation changes is less signi cant. Our estimates suggest that the monetary authority overreacts to output shocks by increasing the money supply in a more than necessary amount, generating a signi cant source of positive correlation. From a practical perspective, We nd that it is a good strategy to use as a hedge, the futures whose maturity is closer to the hedging horizon. This is particularly true for short-term hedging.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Avda. Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago|
Phone: (562) 354-4303
Fax: (562) 553-1664
Web page: http://www.economia.uc.cl
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997.
"Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks,"
97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987.
"Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May.
- Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1985. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," NBER Working Papers 1618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1984. "Money and Interest in Cash-In-Advance Economy," Discussion Papers 628, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Gurdip S. Bakshi & Zhiwu Chen, 1998.
"Inflation, Asset Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Monetary Economies,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm44, Yale School of Management.
- Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1996. "Inflation, Asset Prices, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Monetary Economies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 241-275.
- Chao Wei, 2003. "Energy, the Stock Market, and the Putty-Clay Investment Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 311-323, March.
- Finn, Mary G, 2000. "Perfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 400-416, August.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Herrera, Ana Maria & Hamilton, James D., 2001. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4qp0p0v5, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Karel Janeček & Steven Shreve, 2004. "Asymptotic analysis for optimal investment and consumption with transaction costs," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 181-206, 05.
- Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
- Murray Carlson & Zeigham Khokher & Sheridan Titman, 2007.
"Equilibrium Exhaustible Resource Price Dynamics,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1663-1703, 08.
- Miguel Sidrauski, 1967. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 796-796.
- Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
- Pearson, Neil D & Sun, Tong-Sheng, 1994. " Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1279-1304, September.
- Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
- Leonid Kogan & Dmitry Livdan & Amir Yaron, 2009.
"Oil Futures Prices in a Production Economy with Investment Constraints,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1345-1375, 06.
- Leonid Kogan & Dmitry Livdan & Amir Yaron, 2008. "Oil Futures Prices in a Production Economy With Investment Constraints," Working Papers 0803, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Bryan R. Routledge, 2005. "Equilibrium Commodity Prices with Irreversible Investment and Non-Linear Technology," NBER Working Papers 11864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lioui, Abraham & Poncet, Patrice, 2005. "General equilibrium pricing of CPI derivatives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1265-1294, May.
- Balduzzi, Pierluigi, 2007. "Money and asset prices in a continuous-time Lucas and Stokey cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2713-2743, August.
- Gary Gorton & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2004.
"Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures,"
NBER Working Papers
10595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:373. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jaime Casassus)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.