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The impact of oil prices on economic activity in administrated price structure: the case of Tunisia

  • Necibi, Thameur
  • Issaoui, Fakhri
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    This article has for a core objective the handling of the established relation between oil price variation and certain macroeconomic variables, in this particular case GDP, RMM, CPI, Ex-factory price. The study in Tunisia is based on quarterly and monthly data from the period going from 2000 to 2011 revealed three important facts. First, it showed at the level of the quarterly analysis that the Tunisian authority succeeded in limiting the effect of crude oil price shock, it was approved through an impulse analysis of the dynamic responses, a second important result was revealed at the level of the quarterly analysis and the established long-term relation which showed that the GDP or the industrial production positively and significantly depend on Brent oil price and on the inflation in a structure of administered price. Second at the level of the monthly analysis, the conducted study allowed us to identify the nature of inflation, which is said to the production cost through introducing a new variable which is ex-factory price. Third, the conducted study allowed us to study the asymmetric relation between Brent oil price and the monetary mechanism in an administered price regime.

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    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 50420.

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    Date of creation: 01 Oct 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50420
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    1. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 137-154, March.
    2. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lorde, Troy & Jackman, Mahalia & Thomas, Chrystol, 2009. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country: The case of Trinidad and Tobago," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2708-2716, July.
    4. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    5. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2012. "The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 35-89.
    6. Jaime Casassus & Diego Ceballos, 2010. "Correlation Structure between Inflation and Oil Futures Returns: An Equilibrium Approach," Documentos de Trabajo 373, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    7. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Kolodziej, Marek, 2008. "Former Soviet Union oil production and GDP decline: Granger causality and the multi-cycle Hubbert curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 271-289, March.
    9. Hillard G. Huntington, 1998. "Crude Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Performance: Where Does the Asymmetry Reside?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 107-132.
    10. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June.
    11. Mandal, Kumarjit & Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Bhoi, Binod B., 2012. "Is the oil price pass-through in India any different?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 832-848.
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