Modeling The Euro Overnight Rate
This paper describes the evolution of the daily Euro overnight interestrate (EONIA) by using several models containing the jump component such asa single regime ARCH-Poisson-Gaussian process, with either a piecewisefunction or an autoregressive conditional specification (ARJI) for the jumpintensity, and a two regime-switching process with jumps and time varyingtransition probabilities. To model the jump intensity, we include the followingeffects which are significant for the occurrence of jumps such as: (1) the end ofmaintenance period effect because of reserve requirements, (2) the end ofmonth effect, also known as the calendar day effect, caused mainly by theaccounting adjustments and finally, (3) the meeting effect caused by thefortnightly meetings of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank(ECB). These effects lead to a better performance and several of them are alsoincluded for the behavior of the transition probabilities. Since the target of theECB is keeping the EONIA rate close to the official rate, we have modeled theconditional mean of the overnight rate series as a reversion process to theofficial rate distinguishing two alternative speeds of reversion, in concrete, adifferent speed if EONIA is higher or lower than the official rate. We also studythe jumps of the EONIA rate around the ECB’s meetings by using the ex-postprobabilities of the ARJI model. Finally, we develop an out-of-sampleforecasting analysis to measure the performance of the different candidatemodels.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published by Ivie|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: C/ Guardia Civil, 22, Esc 2a, 1o, E-46020 VALENCIA|
Phone: +34 96 319 00 50
Fax: +34 96 319 00 55
Web page: http://www.ivie.es/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986.
"The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1985. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi, 1993.
"A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
4347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
- Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andrés, 2001.
"The microstructure of the euro money market,"
Working Paper Series
0080, European Central Bank.
- Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
- John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2004.
"News Arrival, Jump Dynamics, and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 755-793, 04.
- John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2003. "News Arrival, Jump Dynamics and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-38, CIRANO.
- Leonardo Bartolini & Giuseppe Bertola & Alessandro Prati, 2000.
"Day-to-day monetary policy and the volatility of the federal funds interest rate,"
110, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Bartolini, Leonardo & Bertola, Giuseppe & Prati, Alessandro, 2002. "Day-to-Day Monetary Policy and the Volatility of the Federal Funds Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 137-59, February.
- Alessandro Prati & Giuseppe Bertola & Leonardo Bartolini, 2000. "Day-To-Day Monetary Policy and the Volatility of the Federal Funds Interest Rate," IMF Working Papers 00/206, International Monetary Fund.
- Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2003.
"Volatility of interest rates in the euro area: evidence from high frequency data,"
Working Paper Series
0235, European Central Bank.
- Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2006. "Volatility of interest rates in the euro area: Evidence from high frequency data," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6-7), pages 513-528.
- Chan, Wing H & Maheu, John M, 2002. "Conditional Jump Dynamics in Stock Market Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 377-89, July.
- Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July.
- Gray, Stephen F., 1996.
"Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Gray's 1996 Regime Switching GARCH paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00080, Boston College Department of Economics.
- James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, .
"A model for the federal funds rate target,"
Department of Economics
99-07, California Davis - Department of Economics.
- James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2000. "A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target," NBER Working Papers 7847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oscar Jorda & James D. Hamilton, 2003. "A model for the federal funds rate target," Working Papers 997, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Manna, Michele & Pill, Huw & Quiros, Gabriel, 2001. "The Eurosystem's Operational Framework in the Context of the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 65-99, Spring.
- Bindseil, Ulrich & Seitz, Franz, 2001. "The supply and demand for Eurosystem deposits - The first 18 months," Working Paper Series 0044, European Central Bank.
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002.
"Regime Switches in Interest Rates,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-82, April.
- Julius Moschitz, 2004. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Volatility in the Euro Area Money Market," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 95, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
- Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994.
"Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Moschitz, Julius, 2004. "The determinants of the overnight interest rate in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0393, European Central Bank.
- Guan, Lim Kian & Ting, Christopher & Warachka, Mitch, 2005. "The implied jump risk of LIBOR rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2503-2522, October.
- Gaspar, Vítor & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2001.
"The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market,"
Working Paper Series
0069, European Central Bank.
- Gaspar, Vitor & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2001. "The ECB Monetary Policy Strategy and the Money Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 325-42, October.
- Vítor Gaspar & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Jorge Sicilia, 2001. "The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market," Working Papers 47, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2006-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Departamento de Edición)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.