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Modeling The Euro Overnight Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Ángel León

    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Francis Benito

    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Juan Nave

    (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha)

Abstract

This paper describes the evolution of the daily Euro overnight interestrate (EONIA) by using several models containing the jump component such asa single regime ARCH-Poisson-Gaussian process, with either a piecewisefunction or an autoregressive conditional specification (ARJI) for the jumpintensity, and a two regime-switching process with jumps and time varyingtransition probabilities. To model the jump intensity, we include the followingeffects which are significant for the occurrence of jumps such as: (1) the end ofmaintenance period effect because of reserve requirements, (2) the end ofmonth effect, also known as the calendar day effect, caused mainly by theaccounting adjustments and finally, (3) the meeting effect caused by thefortnightly meetings of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank(ECB). These effects lead to a better performance and several of them are alsoincluded for the behavior of the transition probabilities. Since the target of theECB is keeping the EONIA rate close to the official rate, we have modeled theconditional mean of the overnight rate series as a reversion process to theofficial rate distinguishing two alternative speeds of reversion, in concrete, adifferent speed if EONIA is higher or lower than the official rate. We also studythe jumps of the EONIA rate around the ECB’s meetings by using the ex-postprobabilities of the ARJI model. Finally, we develop an out-of-sampleforecasting analysis to measure the performance of the different candidatemodels.

Suggested Citation

  • Ángel León & Francis Benito & Juan Nave, 2006. "Modeling The Euro Overnight Rate," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-11, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2006-11
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Monticini, Andrea & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 304-315.
    2. Sébastien Kraenzlin & Martin Schlegel, 2012. "Demand for Reserves and the Central Bank's Management of Interest Rates," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(IV), pages 531-555, December.
    3. Olga Yashkir & Yuri Yashkir, 2014. "Overnight Index Rate: Model, calibration and simulation," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Sébastien Kraenzlin & Thomas Nellen, 2010. "Daytime Is Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1689-1702, December.
    5. Nautz, Dieter & Offermanns, Christian J., 2008. "Volatility transmission in the European money market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 23-39, March.
    6. Sébastien Kraenzlin, 2009. "Interest Rate Setting on the Swiss Franc Repo Market," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 351-377, September.
    7. repec:ctc:serie1:def10 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARCH-Poisson-Gaussian; Regime switching; mean reversion; Autoregressive conditional jump intensity; Maintenance period; Calendar day effect; ECB’s meeting.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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