IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ivi/wpasad/2006-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling The Euro Overnight Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Ángel León

    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Francis Benito

    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Juan Nave

    (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha)

Abstract

This paper describes the evolution of the daily Euro overnight interestrate (EONIA) by using several models containing the jump component such asa single regime ARCH-Poisson-Gaussian process, with either a piecewisefunction or an autoregressive conditional specification (ARJI) for the jumpintensity, and a two regime-switching process with jumps and time varyingtransition probabilities. To model the jump intensity, we include the followingeffects which are significant for the occurrence of jumps such as: (1) the end ofmaintenance period effect because of reserve requirements, (2) the end ofmonth effect, also known as the calendar day effect, caused mainly by theaccounting adjustments and finally, (3) the meeting effect caused by thefortnightly meetings of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank(ECB). These effects lead to a better performance and several of them are alsoincluded for the behavior of the transition probabilities. Since the target of theECB is keeping the EONIA rate close to the official rate, we have modeled theconditional mean of the overnight rate series as a reversion process to theofficial rate distinguishing two alternative speeds of reversion, in concrete, adifferent speed if EONIA is higher or lower than the official rate. We also studythe jumps of the EONIA rate around the ECB’s meetings by using the ex-postprobabilities of the ARJI model. Finally, we develop an out-of-sampleforecasting analysis to measure the performance of the different candidatemodels.

Suggested Citation

  • Ángel León & Francis Benito & Juan Nave, 2006. "Modeling The Euro Overnight Rate," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-11, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2006-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasad/wpasad-2006-11.pdf
    File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2006
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
    2. Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April.
    3. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October.
    4. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July.
    5. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001. "The microstructure of the euro money market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 895-948, November.
    6. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
    7. Moschitz, Julius, 2004. "The determinants of the overnight interest rate in the euro area," Working Paper Series 393, European Central Bank.
    8. Chan, Wing H & Maheu, John M, 2002. "Conditional Jump Dynamics in Stock Market Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 377-389, July.
    9. Gaspar, Vitor & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2001. "The ECB Monetary Policy Strategy and the Money Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 325-342, October.
    10. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.
    11. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2006. "Volatility of interest rates in the euro area: Evidence from high frequency data," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6-7), pages 513-528.
    12. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-182, April.
    13. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    14. Julius Moschitz, 2004. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Volatility in the Euro Area Money Market," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 95, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    15. Guan, Lim Kian & Ting, Christopher & Warachka, Mitch, 2005. "The implied jump risk of LIBOR rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2503-2522, October.
    16. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2004. "News Arrival, Jump Dynamics, and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 755-793, April.
    17. Bartolini, Leonardo & Bertola, Giuseppe & Prati, Alessandro, 2002. "Day-to-Day Monetary Policy and the Volatility of the Federal Funds Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 137-159, February.
    18. Francisco Alonso & Roberto Blanco, 2005. "Is the volatility of the EONIA transmitted to longer-term euro money market interest rates?," Working Papers 0541, Banco de España.
    19. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
    20. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    21. Bindseil, Ulrich & Seitz, Franz, 2001. "The supply and demand for Eurosystem deposits - The first 18 months," Working Paper Series 44, European Central Bank.
    22. Michele Manna & Huw Pill & Gabriel Quirós, 2001. "The Eurosystem's Operational Framework in the Context of the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 65-99.
    23. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sébastien Kraenzlin & Martin Schlegel, 2012. "Demand for Reserves and the Central Bank's Management of Interest Rates," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(IV), pages 531-555, December.
    2. Olga Yashkir & Yuri Yashkir, 2014. "Overnight Index Rate: Model, calibration and simulation," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Sébastien Kraenzlin & Thomas Nellen, 2010. "Daytime Is Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1689-1702, December.
    4. Sébastien Kraenzlin, 2009. "Interest Rate Setting on the Swiss Franc Repo Market," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 351-377, September.
    5. repec:ctc:serie1:def10 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Monticini, Andrea & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 304-315.
    7. Nautz, Dieter & Offermanns, Christian J., 2008. "Volatility transmission in the European money market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 23-39, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benito, Francis & Leon, Angel & Nave, Juan, 2007. "Modeling the Euro overnight rate," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 756-782, December.
    2. Caroline Jardet & Gaelle Le Fol, 2010. "Euro money market interest rate dynamics and volatility: how they respond to recent changes in the operational framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 316-330.
    3. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 449-471, June.
    4. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001. "The microstructure of the euro money market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 895-948, November.
    5. Moschitz, Julius, 2004. "The determinants of the overnight interest rate in the euro area," Working Paper Series 393, European Central Bank.
    6. Green, Christopher & Bai, Ye & Murinde, Victor & Ngoka, Kethi & Maana, Isaya & Tiriongo, Samuel, 2016. "Overnight interbank markets and the determination of the interbank rate: A selective survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 149-161.
    7. He, Hui & Yang, Jiawen, 2011. "Regime-switching analysis of ADR home market pass-through," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 204-214, January.
    8. Gaspar, Vitor & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Rodriguez Mendizabal, Hugo, 2004. "Interest Rate Determination in the Interbank Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4516, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Würtz, Flemming Reinhardt, 2003. "A comprehensive model on the euro overnight rate," Working Paper Series 207, European Central Bank.
    10. Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    11. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001. "The microstructure of the euro money market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 895-948, November.
    12. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Advances in Econometrics, in: Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications, pages 1-86, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    13. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
    14. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
    15. Gaspar, Vítor & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Rodríguez Mendizábal, Hugo, 2008. "Interest rate dispersion and volatility in the market for daily funds," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 413-440, April.
    16. Prati, Alessandro & Bartolini, Leonardo & Bertola, Giuseppe, 2003. "The overnight interbank market: Evidence from the G-7 and the Euro zone," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 2045-2083, October.
    17. Silvio Colarossi & Andrea Zaghini, 2009. "Gradualism, Transparency and the Improved Operational Framework: A Look at Overnight Volatility Transmission," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 151-170, August.
    18. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2008. "Level-ARCH short rate models with regime switching: Bivariate modeling of US and European short rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 925-948, December.
    19. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank.
    20. Quiros, Gabriel Perez & Mendizabal, Hugo Rodriguez, 2006. "The Daily Market for Funds in Europe: What Has Changed with the EMU?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 91-118, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARCH-Poisson-Gaussian; Regime switching; mean reversion; Autoregressive conditional jump intensity; Maintenance period; Calendar day effect; ECB’s meeting.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2006-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Departamento de Edición (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ievages.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.