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Sources of variation in holding returns for fed funds futures contracts

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  • James D. Hamilton
  • Tatsuyoshi Okimoto

Abstract

This study relates predictable gains from positions in fed funds futures contracts to violations of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. Although evidence for predictable gains from positions in short‐horizon contracts is mixed, we find that gains in longer horizon contracts can be well described using Markov‐switching models, with predictability associated with particular episodes in which economic activity was weak and variability in the returns to these contracts was quite high. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:205–229, 2011

Suggested Citation

  • James D. Hamilton & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2011. "Sources of variation in holding returns for fed funds futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 205-229, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:31:y:2011:i:3:p:205-229
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    Cited by:

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    2. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Dick van Dijk & Robin L. Lumsdaine & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions," NBER Working Papers 19814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Ansgar Rannenberg & Sven Schreiber, 2017. "Reassessing the Impact of the US Fiscal Stimulus: The Role of the Monetary Policy Stance," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 12-31, April.
    5. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas & Steffensen, Sigurd A.M., 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 841-858.
    6. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Estimating the Policy Rule from Money Market Rates when Target Rate Changes Are Lumpy," Staff Working Papers 12-41, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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