The liquidity effect for open market operations
The liquidity effect is the negative relationship between the supply of federal funds and the overnight federal funds rate. Deviations of the federal funds rate from its target can be interpreted as demand innovations for federal funds. Permanent adjustments to demand are modeled as an unobserved component and estimated using the Kalman filter to identify liquidity effects. The demand-based approach for identifying the liquidity effect contrasts previous work which concentrates on errors forecasting the supply of federal funds. This paper finds a liquidity effect several times larger than that from previous studies, indicating the market for federal funds is less liquid than previously thought. The effect of a $1 billion increase in open market operations over a 1-week period is a decrease of the federal funds rate by about 12 basis points.
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Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
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- Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2008. "The Liquidity Effect in the Federal Funds Market: Evidence at the Monthly Frequency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 1-24, 02.
- James D. Hamilton, 1996.
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Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
96-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Daniel L. Thornton, 2001. "Identifying the liquidity effect at the daily frequency," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 59-82.
- Judson, Ruth A. & Klee, Elizabeth, 2010. "Whither the liquidity effect: The impact of Federal Reserve open market operations in recent years," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 713-731, September.
- Klee, Elizabeth, 2010. "Operational outages and aggregate uncertainty in the federal funds market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2386-2402, October.
- Daniel L. Thornton, 2005.
"Open market operations and the federal funds rate,"
2005-063, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Seth B. Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2004.
"The liquidity effect in the federal funds market: evidence from daily open market operations,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2004-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva, 2006. "The Liquidity Effect in the Federal Funds Market: Evidence from Daily Open Market Operations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 901-920, June.
- Simon Gilchrist, 2001. "Identifying the liquidity effect at the daily frequency (commentary)," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 59-82.
- Daniel L. Thornton, 2006. "The daily liquidity effect," Working Papers 2006-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- anonymous, 2004. "Domestic open market operations during 2004," Annual Report Domestic Open Market Operations, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Thornton, Daniel L., 2004. "The Fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 475-498, March.
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