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The Federal Reserve's balance sheet and overnight interest rates

  • Jaime Marquez
  • Ari Morse
  • Bernd Schlusche
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    This paper provides a comprehensive study of the interplay between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and overnight interest rates. We model both the supply of and the demand for excess reserves, treating assets of the Federal Reserve as policy tools, and estimate the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on overnight funding rates. We find that, in the current environment with quite elevated levels of reserves, the effect of further monetary policy accommodation on overnight interest rates is limited. Further, assuming a path for removing monetary policy accommodation that is consistent with the FOMC's exit principles, we project that the federal funds rate increases to 70 basis points, settling in a corridor bracketed by the discount rate and the interest rate on excess reserves, as excess reserves of depository institutions decline to near zero.

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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2012/201266/201266abs.html
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2012/201266/201266pap.pdf
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    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2012-66.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2012-66
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    Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2009. "Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2358, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2009.
    3. Morten L. Bech & Elizabeth Klee & Viktors Stebunovs, 2012. "Arbitrage, liquidity and exit: the repo and federal funds markets before, during, and emerging from the financial crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. James Clouse & Dale Henderson & Athanasios Orphanides & David Small & Peter Tinsley, 2000. "Monetary policy when the nominal short-term interest rate is zero," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Kopchak, Seth J., 2011. "The liquidity effect for open market operations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3292-3299.
    6. Gara Afonso & Anna Kovner & Antoinette Schoar, 2010. "Stressed, not frozen: the Federal Funds market in the financial crisis," Staff Reports 437, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2004. "The liquidity effect in the federal funds market: evidence from daily open market operations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Bech, Morten L. & Klee, Elizabeth, 2011. "The mechanics of a graceful exit: Interest on reserves and segmentation in the federal funds market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 415-431.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2004. "Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 85-90, May.
    10. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.
    11. Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2008. "The Liquidity Effect in the Federal Funds Market: Evidence at the Monthly Frequency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 1-24, 02.
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