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The Federal Reserve's balance sheet and overnight interest rates


  • Jaime R. Marquez
  • Ari Morse
  • Bernd Schlusche


This paper provides a comprehensive study of the interplay between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and overnight interest rates. We model both the supply of and the demand for excess reserves, treating assets of the Federal Reserve as policy tools, and estimate the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on overnight funding rates. We find that, in the current environment with quite elevated levels of reserves, the effect of further monetary policy accommodation on overnight interest rates is limited. Further, assuming a path for removing monetary policy accommodation that is consistent with the FOMC's exit principles, we project that the federal funds rate increases to 70 basis points, settling in a corridor bracketed by the discount rate and the interest rate on excess reserves, as excess reserves of depository institutions decline to near zero.

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  • Jaime R. Marquez & Ari Morse & Bernd Schlusche, 2012. "The Federal Reserve's balance sheet and overnight interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2012-66

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kopchak, Seth J., 2011. "The liquidity effect for open market operations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3292-3299.
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    6. Bech, Morten L. & Klee, Elizabeth, 2011. "The mechanics of a graceful exit: Interest on reserves and segmentation in the federal funds market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 415-431.
    7. Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva, 2006. "The Liquidity Effect in the Federal Funds Market: Evidence from Daily Open Market Operations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 901-920, June.
    8. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.
    9. Gara Afonso & Anna Kovner & Antoinette Schoar, 2011. "Stressed, Not Frozen: The Federal Funds Market in the Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1109-1139, August.
    10. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    11. Morten L. Bech & Elizabeth C. Klee & Viktors Stebunovs, 2012. "Arbitrage, liquidity and exit: the repo and federal funds markets before, during, and emerging from the financial crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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