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Financial Stress and Equilibrium Dynamics in Money Markets

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  • Zeynep Senyuz
  • Emre Yoldas

Abstract

Interest rate spreads are widely-used indicators of funding pressures and market functioning in money markets. Using weekly data from 2002 to 2015, we analyze money market dynamics in a long-run equilibrium framework where commonly-monitored spreads serve as error correction terms. We find strong evidence for nonlinearities with respect to levels of the spreads. We provide point and interval estimates for spread thresholds that quantify funding pressure points from a long-run perspective. Our results indicate significant asymmetry in the adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. We show that economically and statistically significant adjustments occur only following large shocks to risk premia. Additionally, we quantify shifts in interest rate volatilities in high spread regimes characterized by elevated funding stress as well as declining correlations between risky funding rates and relatively safe base rates in such environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeynep Senyuz & Emre Yoldas, 2015. "Financial Stress and Equilibrium Dynamics in Money Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-91, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2015-91
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2015.091
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.091
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Elizabeth C. Klee & Zeynep Senyuz & Emre Yoldas, 2016. "Effects of Changing Monetary and Regulatory Policy on Overnight Money Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-084, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Shanshan Jiang & Hong Fan, 2019. "Systemic Risk in the Interbank Market with Overlapping Portfolios," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-12, April.
    3. Aneta Hryckiewicz & Piotr Mielus & Karolina Skorulska & Malgorzata Snarska, 2018. "Does a bank levy increase frictions on the interbank market?," Working Papers 2018-033, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money markets; Cointegration; Threshold models; GARCH; Constant conditional correlation model.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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