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The Spectre of Deflation: A Review of Empirical Evidence

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  • Gregor W. Smith

    () (Queen's University)

Abstract

What explains the widespread fear of deflation? This paper reviews the history of thought, economic history, and empirical evidence on deflation, with a view to answering this question. It also outlines informally the main effects of deflation in applied monetary models. The main finding is that -- for both historical and contemporary deflations -- there are many open, empirical questions that could be answered using the tools economists use to study inflation and monetary policy more generally.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor W. Smith, 2006. "The Spectre of Deflation: A Review of Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 1086, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1086
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    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1086.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Canry & Julien Fouquau & Sébastien Lechevalier, 2011. "Sectoral Price Dynamics in Japan: A Threshold Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1322-1335.
    2. Bill Dorval & Gregor W. Smith, 2015. "Interwar Inflation, Unexpected Inflation, and Output Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1599-1615, December.
    3. Clinton, Kevin & Garcia-Saltos, Roberto & Johnson, Marianne & Kamenik, Ondrej & Laxton, Douglas, 2010. "International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 140-177, June.
    4. James Yetman, 2009. "Hong Kong Consumer Prices are Flexible," Working Papers 052009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. St-Amant, Pierre & Tessier, David, 2008. "Déflation et politique monétaire," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 84(3), pages 307-323, septembre.
    6. Claudio Borio & Magdalena Erdem & Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2015. "The costs of deflations: a historical perspective," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    7. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Deflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 699, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    deflation;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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