Interwar Inflation, Unexpected Inflation, and Output Growth
Interwar macroeconomic history is a natural place to look for evidence on the correlation between output growth and inflation or unexpected inflation. We apply time-series methods to measure unexpected inflation for more than twenty countries using both retail and wholesale prices. There is a significant, positive correlation between output growth and inflation for the entire period. There is little evidence that this correlation is caused by an underlying role for unexpected inflation. For wholesale price inflation in particular the output declines associated with deflations were larger than the output increases associated with inflations of the same scale.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (613) 533-2250
Fax: (613) 533-6668
Web page: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gregor W. Smith, 2006.
"The spectre of deflation: a review of empirical evidence,"
Canadian Journal of Economics,
Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1041-1072, November.
- Gregor W. Smith, 2006. "The Spectre of Deflation: A Review of Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 1086, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993.
"Were price changes during the Great Depression anticipated? : Evidence from nominal interest rates,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 3-34, August.
- Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1992. "Were Price Changes during the Great Depression Anticipated? Evidence from Nominal Interest Rates," Working Papers 92-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Ray C. Fair & Matthew D. Shapiro & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1986.
"Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale,"
NBER Working Papers
2095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D, 1992. "Was the Deflation during the Great Depression Anticipated? Evidence from the Commodity Futures Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 157-78, March.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Babcock)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.