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Interwar Inflation, Unexpected Inflation, and Output Growth

  • Bill Dorval

    ()

    (Queen's University)

  • Gregor W. Smith

    ()

    (Queen's University)

Interwar macroeconomic history is a natural place to look for evidence on the correlation between output growth and inflation or unexpected inflation. We apply time-series methods to measure unexpected inflation for more than twenty countries using both retail and wholesale prices. There is a significant, positive correlation between output growth and inflation for the entire period. There is little evidence that this correlation is caused by an underlying role for unexpected inflation. For wholesale price inflation in particular the output declines associated with deflations were larger than the output increases associated with inflations of the same scale.

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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1310.pdf
File Function: First version 2013
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Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1310.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1310
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  1. Gregor W. Smith, 2006. "The Spectre of Deflation: A Review of Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 1086, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Were price changes during the Great Depression anticipated? : Evidence from nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 3-34, August.
  3. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Fair, Ray C & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1988. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 595-612, September.
  4. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  5. Hamilton, James D, 1992. "Was the Deflation during the Great Depression Anticipated? Evidence from the Commodity Futures Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 157-78, March.
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