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The spectre of deflation: a review of empirical evidence

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  • Gregor W. Smith

Abstract

What explains the widespread fear of deflation? This article reviews the history of thought, economic history, and empirical evidence on deflation, with a view to answering this question. It also outlines informally the main effects of deflation in applied monetary models. The main finding is that – for both historical and contemporary deflations – there are many open, empirical questions that could be answered using the tools economists use to study inflation and monetary policy more generally. Qu'est‐ce qui explique la peur très répandue de la déflation? Ce mémoire fait un tour d'horizon de l'histoire de la pensée économique, de l'histoire économique, et des résultats empiriques quant aux effets de la déflation en vue de répondre à cette question. On fait aussi écho informellement aux effets principaux de la déflation dans les modèles monétaires appliqués. Ce qui ressort principalement de ce travail est que – tant pour les déflations dans l'histoire que dans le monde contemporain – il y a bien des questions empiriques encore irrésolues auxquelles on pourrait donner une réponse en utilisant l'outillage mental que les économistes utilisent pour étudier l'inflation et la politique monétaire plus généralement. spĕc'tre, n. thing that is thought to be seen but has no material existence; haunting presentiment (of ruin, war, madness, etc.)

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  • Gregor W. Smith, 2006. "The spectre of deflation: a review of empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1041-1072, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:39:y:2006:i:4:p:1041-1072
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5982.2006.00381.x
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    3. Robert Amano & Thomas J. Carter & Rhys R. Mendes, 2016. "Comparing Forward Guidance and Neo-Fisherianism as Strategies for Escaping Liquidity Traps," Staff Analytical Notes 16-16, Bank of Canada.
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    6. Kevin Clinton & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Marianne Johnson & Ondrej Kamenik & Douglas Laxton, 2010. "International Deflation Risks under Alternative Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: Sticky Prices and Inflation Dynamics (NBER-TCER-CEPR), pages 140-177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. James Yetman, 2009. "Hong Kong Consumer Prices are Flexible," Working Papers 052009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Robert W. Dimand, 2011. "Lessons from the 1929 Crash and the 1930s Debt Deflation: What Bernanke and King Learned, and What They Could Have Learned," Chapters, in: Claude Gnos & Louis-Philippe Rochon (ed.), Credit, Money and Macroeconomic Policy, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. St-Amant, Pierre & Tessier, David, 2008. "Déflation et politique monétaire," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 84(3), pages 307-323, septembre.
    10. Claudio Borio & Magdalena Erdem & Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2015. "The costs of deflations: a historical perspective," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.

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    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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