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Deflation: Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Taimur Baig
  • Mr. Jörg Decressin
  • Mr. Tarhan Feyzioglu
  • Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar
  • Mr. Chris Faulkner-MacDonagh

Abstract

Deflation can be costly and difficult to anticipate, and concerns of a generalized decline in prices in both industrial and emerging market economies have increased recently. This paper investigates the causes and consequences of deflation, the risk of deflation globally and in individual countries, and policy options. The authors discuss issues related to the measurement, determinants, and costs of deflation and examine previous episodes of deflation. They compute an index of deflation vulnerability, which they apply to the 35 largest industrial and emerging market economies. Finally, the paper offers several policy options for protecting against deflation and for coping with it should it strike.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Taimur Baig & Mr. Jörg Decressin & Mr. Tarhan Feyzioglu & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Chris Faulkner-MacDonagh, 2003. "Deflation: Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options," IMF Occasional Papers 2003/003, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfops:2003/003
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1103-1129, September.
    2. Hans Genberg, 2005. "External Shocks, Transmission Mechanisms and Deflation in Asia," Working Papers 062005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. Gregor W. Smith, 2006. "The spectre of deflation: a review of empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1041-1072, November.
    4. Heinz Handler, 2003. "From Hard Currency Policy to Monetary Union," WIFO Working Papers 210, WIFO.
    5. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    6. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2015. "Is deflation trap a serious threat? Case study of FED, ECB and NBP," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14(2), pages 243-259, June.
    7. Mr. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2005. "Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan?," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2005/005, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Denise Côté & Carlos De Resende, 2008. "Globalization and Inflation: The Role of China," Staff Working Papers 08-35, Bank of Canada.
    9. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    10. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
    11. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
    12. Necmettin Tarhan Feyzioglu & Luke Byrne Willard, 2008. "Does China have Inflationary Effects on the USA and Japan?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, January.
    13. Mr. Luke B Willard & Mr. Tarhan Feyzioglu, 2006. "Does Inflation in China Affect the United States and Japan?," IMF Working Papers 2006/036, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Peng, Xuehua & Marchant, Mary A. & Reed, Michael R., 2004. "Identifying Monetary Impacts On Food Prices In China: A Vec Model Approach," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20315, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Wang, Tao, 2005. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 753-771, December.
    16. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Ms. Tao Wang, 2004. "China: Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 2004/018, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Meng, Xiangcai & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2016. "Nonlinear models for the sources of real effective exchange rate fluctuations: Evidence from the Republic of Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 21-30.

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