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Globalization and Inflation: The Role of China


  • Denise Côté
  • Carlos de Resende


In this paper, we develop a theoretical model which identifies four channels-import prices, competition with domestic suppliers and workers, and commodity prices-through which priceand wage-setting conditions in country j may affect inflation in country i. We estimate a dynamic inflation equation derived from the theoretical model using a quarterly dataset of eighteen OECD countries over the 1984-2006 period. Although our methodology can be applied to any pair of countries, we focus on the effect of China on the inflation rate of other countries. Our results suggest that while China's negative effect on global inflation has been quantitatively modest, it has increased in absolute terms since the early 2000s. We also find evidence that, for most countries examined, competition with domestic suppliers has been the most important channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Denise Côté & Carlos de Resende, 2008. "Globalization and Inflation: The Role of China," Staff Working Papers 08-35, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:08-35

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Charles T Carlstrom & Timothy S Fuerst, 2009. "Central Bank Independence And Inflation: A Note," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 182-186, January.
    2. Carlos de Resende, 2007. "Cross-Country Estimates of the Degree of Fiscal Dominance and Central Bank Independence," Staff Working Papers 07-36, Bank of Canada.
    3. Luke B Willard & Tarhan Feyzioglu, 2006. "Does Inflation in China Affect the United States and Japan?," IMF Working Papers 06/36, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Louis Morel, 2007. "The Direct Effect of China on Canadian Consumer Prices: An Empirical Assessment," Discussion Papers 07-10, Bank of Canada.
    5. Bomfim, Antulio N & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2000. "Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 707-721, November.
    6. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring.
    7. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-787, October.
    8. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. George T. McCandless & Warren E. Weber, 1995. "Some monetary facts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-11.
    10. Jane E. Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah J. Lindner & Jaime R. Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Graydon Paulin, 2006. "Credibility with Flexibility: The Evolution of Inflation-Targeting Regimes, 1990–2006," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2006(Summer), pages 5-18.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dreger, Christian & Zhang, Yanqun, 2017. "The Hukou Impact on the Chinese Wage Structure," IZA Discussion Papers 10720, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Christian Dreger & Malte Rieth & David Pothier, 2015. "Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 106, number pbk106.
    3. Eickmeier, Sandra & Kühnlenz, Markus, 2013. "China's role in global inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 07/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Martin T. Bohl & David G. Mayes & Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "The Quality Of Monetary Policy And Inflation Performance: Globalization And Its Aftermath," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 617-645, June.

    More about this item


    International topics;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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