IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/195.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Some Preliminary Evidence on the Globalization-Inflation Nexus

Author

Listed:
  • Guilloux, S.
  • Kharroubi, E.

Abstract

This paper aims at evaluating the impact of globalization, if any, on inflation and the inflation process. We estimate standard Phillips curve equations on a panel of OECD countries over the last 25 years. We first show that the impact of commodity import price inflation on CPI inflation depends on the volume of commodity imports while the impact of non-commodity import price inflation is independent of the volume of non-commodity imports. Second, focusing on the role of intra-industry trade, we provide preliminary evidence that this variable can account (i) for the low pass-through of import price to consumer price and (ii) for the flattening of the Phillips curve, i.e. the lower sensitivity of inflation to the output gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Guilloux, S. & Kharroubi, E., 2008. "Some Preliminary Evidence on the Globalization-Inflation Nexus," Working papers 195, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:195
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/working-paper_195_2008.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott, Andrew & Imbs, Jean & Chen, Natalie, 2004. "Competition, Globalization and the Decline of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Daniel Cohen, 2007. "Globalization and Its Enemies," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262532972, December.
    3. Frey, L. & Moëc, G., 2006. "Vers une intensification des tensions inflationnistes globales ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 152, pages 23-33.
    4. Olarreaga, Marcelo & Kee, Hiau Looi, 2001. "Mark-ups, Entry Regulation and Trade: Does Country Size Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Kramarz, Francis, 2003. "Wages and International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Hervé Boulhol, 2005. "Why haven't price-cost margins decreased with globalization?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06007, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    8. Gamber, Edward N & Hung, Juann H, 2001. "Has the Rise in Globalization Reduced U.S. Inflation in the 1990s?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 58-73, January.
    9. Steven B. Kamin & Mario Marazzi & John W. Schindler, 2006. "The Impact of Chinese Exports on Global Import Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 179-201, May.
    10. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    11. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Hervé Boulhol, 2006. "Why Haven't Price-Cost Margins Decreased with Globalization?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00084267, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simone Auer, 2023. "Financial globalization and monetary transmission," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 721-760, May.
    2. Joseph P. Byrne & Fatima Kaneez & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2010. "Inflation and Globalisation: A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility," Working Papers 2010_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "First steps: developing a research agenda on globalization and monetary policy," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 4-13.
    4. Sandeep Mazumder, 2017. "The Impact of Globalization on Inflation in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 41-60, September.
    5. Mark A. Wynne, 2012. "Five Years of Research on Globalization and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 2-17.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hervé Boulhol & Sabien Dobbelaere & Sara Maioli, 2011. "Imports as Product and Labour Market Discipline," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 331-361, June.
    2. Sekine, Toshitaka, 2009. "Another look at global disinflation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 220-239, June.
    3. Byrne, Joseph P. & Kaneez, Fatima & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2010. "IInflation and Globalisation: A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-05, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2015. "Globalization and Inflation: Evidence from a Time Varying VAR," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 406-433, April.
    5. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Christian Dreger & Malte Rieth & David Pothier, 2015. "Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 106, number pbk106, January.
    7. Jane E. Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah J. Lindner & Jaime R. Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Eugenio Gaiotti, 2010. "Commentary: Has Globalization Changed the Phillips Curve? Firm-Level Evidence on the Effect of Activity on Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 51-84, March.
    9. Syed Kanwar Abbas, 2018. "Global slack hypothesis: evidence from China, India and Pakistan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 593-627, March.
    10. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 491-503, May.
    11. Milani, Fabio, 2012. "Has Globalization Transformed U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 204-229, April.
    12. Argia M. Sbordone, 2007. "Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: The Impact of Increased Competition," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 547-579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Wong, Chin-Yoong & Eng, Yoke-Kee, 2010. "Vertically globalized production structure in New Keynesian Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 198-216, August.
    14. Hervé Boulhol, 2005. "Why haven't price-cost margins decreased with globalization?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06007, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    15. Heiner Mikosch, 2012. "Sticky Prices, Competition and the Phillips Curve," KOF Working papers 12-294, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    16. Gaiotti, Eugenio, 2008. "Has globalisation changed the Phillips curve? Firm-level evidence on the effect of activity on prices," MPRA Paper 8389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Marzinotto, Benedicta, 2009. "Beyond monetary credibility: The impact of globalisation on the output-inflation trade-off in euro-area countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 162-176, August.
    18. Zhang, Chengsi & Zhou, You, 2016. "The Global Slack Hypothesis: New Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 339-348.
    19. Jašová, Martina & Moessner, Richhild & Takáts, Előd, 2020. "Domestic and global output gaps as inflation drivers: What does the Phillips curve tell?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 238-253.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation ; Globalization ; Phillips curve ; Intra-industry trade ; Contestability ; Import prices.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:195. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael brassart (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.