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Some Preliminary Evidence on the Globalization-Inflation Nexus

This paper aims at evaluating the impact of globalization, if any, on inflation and the inflation process. We estimate standard Phillips curve equations on a panel of OECD countries over the last 25 years. We first show that the impact of commodity import price inflation on CPI inflation depends on the volume of commodity imports while the impact of non-commodity import price inflation is independent of the volume of non-commodity imports. Second, focusing on the role of intra-industry trade, we provide preliminary evidence that this variable can account (i) for the low pass-through of import price to consumer price and (ii) for the flattening of the Phillips curve, i.e. the lower sensitivity of inflation to the output gap.

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Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 195.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:195
Contact details of provider: Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
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  1. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
  2. Chen, Natalie & Imbs, Jean & Scott, Andrew, 2004. "Competition, Globalization and the Decline of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Hoekman, Bernard & Kee, Hiau Looi & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2001. "Mark-ups, Entry Regulation and Trade: Does Country Size Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Daniel Cohen, 2006. "Globalization and its enemies," Post-Print hal-00813027, HAL.
  5. Gayle Allard, 2005. "Measuring The Changing Generosity Of Unemployment Benefits: Beyond Existing Indicators," Working Papers Economia wp05-18, Instituto de Empresa, Area of Economic Environment.
  6. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Gayle Allard, 2005. "Measuring job security over time: in search of a historical indicator for EPL," Working Papers Economia wp05-17, Instituto de Empresa, Area of Economic Environment.
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