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Some preliminary evidence on the globalization-inflation nexus


  • Guilloux-Nefussi, Sophie
  • Kharroubi, Enisse


The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of globalization, if any, on inflation and the inflation process. We estimate standard Phillips curve equations on a panel of OECD countries over the last 25 years. While recent papers have concluded that globalization has had no significant impact, this paper highlights that trying to capture globalization effects through simple measures of import prices and/or imports to GDP ratios can be misleading. To do so, we try to extend the analysis following two different avenues. We first separate between commodity and non-commodity imports and show that the impact on inflation of commodity import price inflation is qualitatively different from the impact of noncommodity import price inflation, the former depending on the volume of commodity imports while the latter being independent of the volume of non-commodity imports.> ; This first piece of evidence highlights the role of contestability and the insufficiency of trade volume statistics to properly describe the impact of globalization. This leads us to adopt a more systematic approach to capture the contents and not only the volume of trade. Focusing on the role of intra-industry trade, we provide preliminary evidence that this variable can account (i) for the low pass-through of import price to consumer price and (ii) for the flattening of the Phillips curve, i.e. the lower sensitivity of inflation to changes in output gap. We hence conclude that different facets of globalization, especially changes in the nature of goods traded, can be an important channel through which globalization affects the inflation process.

Suggested Citation

  • Guilloux-Nefussi, Sophie & Kharroubi, Enisse, 2008. "Some preliminary evidence on the globalization-inflation nexus," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 18, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:18

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    2. Chen, Natalie & Imbs, Jean & Scott, Andrew, 2004. "Competition, Globalization and the Decline of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Daniel Cohen, 2007. "Globalization and Its Enemies," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262532972, January.
    4. Gayle Allard, 2005. "Measuring The Changing Generosity Of Unemployment Benefits: Beyond Existing Indicators," Working Papers Economia wp05-18, Instituto de Empresa, Area of Economic Environment.
    5. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Gayle Allard, 2005. "Measuring job security over time: in search of a historical indicator for EPL," Working Papers Economia wp05-17, Instituto de Empresa, Area of Economic Environment.
    7. Hoekman, Bernard & Kee, Hiau Looi & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2001. "Mark-ups, Entry Regulation and Trade: Does Country Size Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simone Meier, 2013. "Financial globalization and monetary transmission," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 145, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. repec:fip:feddgm:00014 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Joseph P. Byrne & Fatima Kaneez & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2010. "Inflation and Globalisation: A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility," Working Papers 2010_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Wynne, Mark A., 2008. "First steps: developing a research agenda on globalization and monetary policy," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, pages 4-13.
    5. repec:jed:journl:v:42:y:2017:i:3:p:41-60 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Globalization; Inflation (Finance); Time-series analysis; International trade;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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