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International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies

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  • Clinton, Kevin
  • Garcia-Saltos, Roberto
  • Johnson, Marianne
  • Kamenik, Ondrej
  • Laxton, Douglas

Abstract

We use a version of the Global Projection Model covering the United States, Euro area and Japan to assess options for dealing with the looming risk of international deflation. The zero floor to interest rates constrains monetary policy. Confidence intervals, derived from stochastic simulations, indicate ranges of uncertainty. The results suggest a high probability of a declining price level for a couple of quarters in 2009. Suitable policy adaptations reduce the risk that this might turn into a prolonged, global deflation. These include: a price level path target for monetary policy, which would respond to previous, as well as expected, shortfalls from the desired inflation rate; a more stimulative fiscal policy; and an increase in the long-run target for inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Clinton, Kevin & Garcia-Saltos, Roberto & Johnson, Marianne & Kamenik, Ondrej & Laxton, Douglas, 2010. "International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 140-177, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:24:y:2010:i:2:p:140-177
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Alichi & Jaromir Benes & Joshua Felman & Irene Feng & Charles Freedman & Douglas Laxton & Evan C Tanner & David Vavra & Hou Wang, 2015. "Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking; Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic," IMF Working Papers 15/74, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Günter Coenen & Anders Warne, 2014. "Risks to Price Stability, the Zero Lower Bound, and Forward Guidance: A Real-Time Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 7-54, June.
    3. Salifou Issoufou & Edward F Buffie & Mouhamadou Bamba Diop & Kalidou Thiaw, 2014. "Efficient Energy Investment and Fiscal Adjustment in Senegal," IMF Working Papers 14/44, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Laxton & Ondra Kamenik & Petar Manchev, 2013. "GPM6; The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions," IMF Working Papers 13/87, International Monetary Fund.

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