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Interwar Inflation, Unexpected Inflation, and Output Growth

Author

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  • Dorval, Bill
  • Smith, Gregor W.

Abstract

Interwar macroeconomic history is a natural place to look for evidence on the correlation between output growth and inflation or unexpected inflation. We apply time-series methods to measure unexpected inflation for more than twenty countries using both retail and wholesale prices. There is a significant, positive correlation between output growth and inflation for the entire period. There is little evidence that this correlation is caused by an underlying role for unexpected inflation. For wholesale price inflation in particular the output declines associated with deflations were larger than the output increases associated with inflations of the same scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorval, Bill & Smith, Gregor W., 2013. "Interwar Inflation, Unexpected Inflation, and Output Growth," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 274635, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:quedwp:274635
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.274635
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    2. Martin Ellison & Sang Seok Lee & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2024. "The Ends of 27 Big Depressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 134-168, January.
    3. Chen, Been-Lon & Liao, Shian-Yu & Liu, Dongpeng & Liu, Xiangbo, 2023. "Optimal long-run money growth rate in a cash-in-advance economy with labor-market frictions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 1737-1766, September.
    4. Liang, Qi & Sun, Wenjia & Li, Wenyu & Yu, Fengyan, 2021. "Media effects matter: Macroeconomic announcements in the gold futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-12.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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