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Deflation and Depression: Is There and Empirical Link?

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  • Andrew Atkeson
  • Patrick Kehoe

Abstract

Are deflation and depression empirically linked? No, concludes a broad historical study of inflation and real output growth rates. Deflation and depression do seem to have been linked during the 1930s. But in the rest of the data for 17 countries and more than 100 years, there is virtually no evidence of such a link.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Atkeson & Patrick Kehoe, 2004. "Deflation and Depression: Is There and Empirical Link?," NBER Working Papers 10268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10268
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    Cited by:

    1. Craighead, William D. & Tien, Pao-Lin, 2015. "Nominal shocks and real exchange rates: Evidence from two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 135-157.
    2. Hogan, Thomas L., 2015. "Has the Fed improved U.S. economic performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 257-266.
    3. Claudio Morana, 2005. "The Japanese deflation: has it had real effects? Could it have been avoided?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1337-1352.
    4. Taiji Harashima, 2004. "The Ultimate Source of Inflation: A Microfoundation of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Macroeconomics 0409018, EconWPA, revised 30 Mar 2005.
    5. Claudio Borio, 2016. "Revisiting Three Intellectual Pillars of Monetary Policy," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 213-238, Spring/Su.
    6. Jess Benhabib & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Moderate Inflation and the Deflation-Depression Link," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 787-798, June.
    7. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, NBER-EASE, Volume 15, pages 131-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Beckworth, David, 2007. "The postbellum deflation and its lessons for today," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-214, August.
    9. Preston J. Miller & Gary H. Stern, 2004. "Avoiding significant monetary policy mistakes," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Dec, pages 2-9.
    10. Ohanian, Lee E., 2014. "The impact of monetary policy in the midst of big shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 35-48.
    11. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305.
    12. Weede Erich, 2009. "Die Finanzmarktkrise als Legitimitätskrise des Kapitalismus: Überlegungen zu (allzu) menschlichem Handeln in Wirtschaft und Politik / The Financial Crisis as a Crisis of the Legitimacy of Capitalism," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1), pages 267-288, January.
    13. William R. White, 2016. "Ultra-Easy Money: Digging the Hole Deeper?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 188-202, October.
    14. Daniel Kaufmann, 2016. "Is Deflation Costly After All? Evidence from Noisy Historical Data," KOF Working papers 16-421, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    15. Tomáš Munzi & Petr Hlaváč, 2011. "Vliv cílování inflace na povahu peněžní nabídky a finanční nerovnováhy
      [Inflation Targeting and Its Impact on the Nature of the Money Supply and the Financial Imbalances]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(4), pages 435-453.
    16. Sachiko Kuroda & Isamu Yamamoto, 2014. "Is Downward Wage Flexibility the Primary Factor of Japan's Prolonged Deflation?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 143-158, January.
    17. Nicolas End & Sampawende J Tapsoba & G. Terrier & Renaud Duplay, 2015. "Deflation and Public Finances; Evidence from the Historical Records," IMF Working Papers 15/176, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Claudio Borio & Magdalena Erdem & Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2015. "The costs of deflations: a historical perspective," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    19. NEWAJ Avinash & DAMAR-LADKOO Adjnu, 2016. "Distorted Facets Of Marketing Ethics For Alcoholic Beer Marketing," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 11(2), pages 79-96, August.
    20. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter, 2009. "Deflationary vs. Inflationary Expectations - A New-Keynesian Perspective with Heterogeneous Agents and Monetary Believes," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 312/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    21. Eichengreen, Barry & Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2016. "Deflation in Asia: Should the Dangers Be Dismissed?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 490, Asian Development Bank.
    22. Guerrero, Federico & Parker, Elliott, 2006. "Deflation and recession: Finding the empirical link," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 12-17, October.
    23. repec:pal:buseco:v:52:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s11369-017-0035-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    25. George Selgin, 2014. "Operation Twist-the-Truth: How the Federal Reserve Misrepresents Its History and Performance," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 34(2), pages 229-263, Spring/Su.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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