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Causal Effects of the Fed's Large-Scale Asset Purchases on Firms' Capital Structure

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  • Andrea Nocera
  • M. Hashem Pesaran

Abstract

We investigate the short- and long-term impacts of the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) on non-financial firms’ capital structure using a threshold panel ARDL model. To isolate the effects of LSAPs from other macroeconomic conditions, we interact firm- and industry-specific indicators of debt capacity with measures of LSAPs. We find that LSAPs facilitated firms’ access to external financing, with both Treasury and MBS purchases having positive effects. Our model also allows us to estimate the time profile of the effects of LSAPs on firm leverage providing robust evidence that they are long-lasting. These effects have a half-life of 4-5 quarters and a mean lag length of about six quarters. Nevertheless, the magnitudes are small, suggesting that LSAPs have contributed only marginally to the rise in U.S. corporate debt ratios of the past decade.

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  • Andrea Nocera & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2022. "Causal Effects of the Fed's Large-Scale Asset Purchases on Firms' Capital Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 9695, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9695
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital structure; identification; interactive effects; leverage; threshold panel ARDL; quantitative easing; unconventional monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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