IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sos/sosjrn/150308.html

The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Transitional Dynamics of Turkish Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Vasif ABİYEV
  • Reşat CEYLAN
  • Munise ILIKKAN ÖZGÜR

Abstract

In this study we investigated usefulness of oil price shocks in predicting switches between the growth phases of output in Turkey using monthly data for the period 1986-2014 by extending Markov Switching framework to include time-varying transition probabilities. We investigate the issue of whether the addition of various real oil price shocks to a univariate Markov Switching model for output can characterize the dynamics of business cycles better than the fixed transition probability version of Markov Switching model. The main results are summarized as follows. We find that although information about the lags of output growth and the information contained in transition probabilities combine to help identify which state of the economy has occurred in the TVTP model, oil price shocks are not the leading indicator of Turkish business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasif ABİYEV & Reşat CEYLAN & Munise ILIKKAN ÖZGÜR, 2015. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Transitional Dynamics of Turkish Business Cycle," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 23(25).
    • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:150308
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dergipark.gov.tr/download/article-file/197827
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Erratum [Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach]," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 555-555, November.
    3. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    5. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    6. repec:aen:journl:1995v16-04-a02 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    8. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Raheem, Ibrahim & Olabisi, Nafisat, 2019. "What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus," MPRA Paper 105361, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Vasif Abiyev & Reşat Ceylan & Munise Ilıkkan Özgür, 2015. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Turkish Business Cycle: A Markov Switching Approach," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 8(2), pages 7-18, October.
    3. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price on South African GDP Growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 319-336, June.
    5. Alasdair Crockett, 2000. "Variations in Churchgoing Rates in England in 1851: Supply-side Deficiency or Demand-led Decline?," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W36, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Manera, Matteo & Cologni, Alessandro, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis," International Energy Markets Working Papers 12121, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. repec:oxf:wpaper:2000-w36.2 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Andreopoulos Spyros, 2009. "Oil Matters: Real Input Prices and U.S. Unemployment Revisited," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, March.
    9. Muellbauer, John & Nunziata, Luca, 2001. "Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 2906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Aloui, Chaker & Jammazi, Rania, 2009. "The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 789-799, September.
    11. Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 169-183.
    12. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2006. "The role of permanent and transitory components in business cycle volatility moderation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 217-241, March.
    13. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Oil Price Changes and U.S. Real GDP Growth: Is this Time Different?," QBS Working Paper Series 2018/03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    14. Daniel, Betty C. & Hafner, Christian M. & Simar, Léopold & Manner, Hans, 2019. "Asymmetries In Business Cycles And The Role Of Oil Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1622-1648, June.
    15. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Paulo Jose Regis, 2008. "Nonlinearities and the order of integration of oil prices," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2008/15, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    16. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    17. Laure Crusson & Muriel Barlet, 2009. "Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 188(2), pages 23-41.
    18. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
    19. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    21. Yoon & Jae Ho, 2004. "Oil and the G7 business cycle : Friedman's Plucking Markov Switching Approach," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 773, Econometric Society.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:150308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aysen Sivrikaya (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sosyoekonomijournal.org/home.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.