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Uk Debt Sustainability: Some Nonlinear Evidence And Theoretical Implications

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  • JOHN CONSIDINE
  • LIAM A. GALLAGHER

Abstract

In this paper we assess whether the UK public finances were sustainable for the period 1919–2001. A robust test of sustainability is presented using a nonlinear representation of the debt–GDP ratio. Empirical evidence supports debt sustainability. Moreover, the exponential smooth transition autoregressive representation is evidence that sustainability is the result of active debt management rather than tax smoothing. The results strongly support the active debt management hypothesis for the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • John Considine & Liam A. Gallagher, 2008. "Uk Debt Sustainability: Some Nonlinear Evidence And Theoretical Implications," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(3), pages 320-335, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:76:y:2008:i:3:p:320-335
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2008.01062.x
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    3. Magazzino, Cosimo & Brady, Gordon L. & Forte, Francesco, 2019. "A panel data analysis of the fiscal sustainability of G-7 countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    4. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2015. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Algeria: a Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers 962, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2015.
    5. Piergallini, Alessandro, 2012. "Non-Linear Fiscal Regimes and Interest Rate Policy," MPRA Paper 42671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Tsong, Ching-Chuan & Wu, Chien-Wei & Chiu, Hsien-Hung & Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2013. "Covariate unit root tests under structural change and asymmetric STAR dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 101-112.
    7. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2019. "Debt sustainability, structural breaks and nonlinear fiscal adjustment: empirical evidence from Algeria," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(4), pages 369-397, December.

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