The Effect of Oil Prices Mobility on Basic Macroeconomic IndicatorsAbstract: In this study, it has been aimed to determine the effect of oil prices on basic macroeconomic indicators econometrically by using the monthly data of the Turkish economy of the 2007-2018 period. Johansen Cointegration method has been used to determine the long-term relationship, and FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR methods have been used to calculate the long-term coefficients. According to the empirical results, oil price mobility is cointegrated with the main macroeconomic indicators in the long run, and have a positive effect on the interest rate, inflation, industrial production index, real effective exchange rate and employment and a negative effect on the current account deficit
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-270, July.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "ZIVOT: RATS procedure to perform Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00236, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
- Schubert, Stefan F., 2014.
"Dynamic Effects Of Oil Price Shocks And Their Impact On The Current Account,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 316-337, March.
- Schubert, Stefan Franz, 2009. "Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and their Impact on the Current Account," MPRA Paper 16738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008.
"Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
- Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2005. "Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2005.101, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2005. "Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries," International Energy Markets Working Papers 12110, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
- Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Sertoglu, Kamil & Candemir, Mehmet & Mercan, Mehmet, 2015. "Oil price movements and macroeconomic performance: Evidence from twenty-six OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 257-270.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Imran Shah, 2012.
"Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies,"
Bristol Economics Discussion Papers
12/626, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
- Imran Shah & Diaz Vela Carlos & Yuan Wang, 2017. "Revisiting the Dynamics Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Small Developing Economies," Department of Economics Working Papers 65/17, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
- Kırca, Mustafa & Canbay, Şerif & Pirali, Kerem, 2020. "Is the relationship between oil-gas prices index and economic growth in Turkey permanent?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
- Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
- Shigeki Ono, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in BRICs," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 29-45, June.
- Nusair, Salah A., 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on the economies of the Gulf Co-operation Council countries: Nonlinear analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 256-267.
- Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005.
"Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
- Juncal Cunado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2004. "Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries," Faculty Working Papers 06/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Heidari, Hassan & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz, 2015. "How Do Different Oil Price Shocks Affect the Relationship Between Oil and Stock Markets?," MPRA Paper 80273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2016.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2017.
"The Impact of Oil Price on South African GDP Growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis,"
African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 319-336, June.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The impact of oil price on South African GDP growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR analysis," Working Papers 15-13, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The impact of oil price on South African GDP growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR analysis," Working Papers 201470, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Jbir, Rafik & Zouari-Ghorbel, Sonia, 2009. "Recent oil price shock and Tunisian economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1041-1051, March.
- Ahmed, Khalid & Bhutto, Niaz Ahmed & Kalhoro, Muhammad Ramzan, 2019.
"Decomposing the links between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from SAARC region,"
Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 423-432.
- Ahmed, Khalid & Bhutto, Niaz Ahmed & Kalhoro, Muhammad Ramzan, 2017. "Decomposing the links between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from SAARC region," MPRA Paper 84901, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rafiq, Shuddhasawtta & Salim, Ruhul & Bloch, Harry, 2009. "Impact of crude oil price volatility on economic activities: An empirical investigation in the Thai economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 121-132, September.
- Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2021. "The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
- Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Zafar Ahmad Sultan, 2019. "Oil Price and Economic Growth: The Case of Indian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 274-279.
- Moghaddam, Mohsen Bakhshi & Lloyd-Ellis, Huw, 2022. "Heterogeneous effects of oil price fluctuations: Evidence from a nonparametric panel data model in Canada," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
- Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018.
"Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
- Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable Energy, Oil Prices, and Economic Activity: A Granger-causality in Quantiles Analysis," MPRA Paper 84194, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jan 2018.
- Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.
- Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Jeyhun Mammadov & Fariz Ahmadov, 2019. "The Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 97-102.
- Nusair, Salah A., 2020. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on unemployment: Evidence from Canada and the U.S," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
- Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Iftikhar Ul Husnain & Qaisar Abbas & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on Asian economies: a nonlinear analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1319-1350, October.
- Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2017. "Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 571-581.
More about this item
Keywords
Oil Prices; Macroeconomic Indicators; Cointegration.;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
- F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
- C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:200308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aysen Sivrikaya (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sosyoekonomijournal.org/home.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.