IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Uncertainty and leveraged Lucas Trees: the cross section of equilibrium volatility risk premia

  • Andrea Vedolin
Registered author(s):

    Volatility risk premia compensate agents for holding assets whose payoffs correlate with times of high return variation. This paper takes a structural approach to explain the cross-section of volatility risk premia of stocks using a Lucas orchard with heterogeneous beliefs, stochastic macro-economic uncertainty, and default risk. I study two manifestations of uncertainty, namely (i) agents’ disagreement and (ii) time-varying volatility of fundamental growth rates. The paper shows that while the former source of risk accounts for the level of the risk premia, the latter mainly affects the higher order moments of the risk premium distribution. Together with uncertainty, default risk associated with levered trees implies a non-monotonic equilibrium link between stock returns and volatility which allows for positive or negative risk premia. Calibrating the economy, I show that the model accounts for predictability of excess stock returns and corporate credit spreads. I construct volatility risk premia from option and stock prices and document that in the time-series, volatility risk premia of individual stocks can be positive or negative, and switch sign rather often. In the cross-section, they are only weakly related to traditional risk factors. I then test the model predictions and find that empirical proxies for investors’ uncertainty about expected growth rates and macro-economic uncertainty are priced risk factors that convey information over and above those contained in other standard factors to explain these risk premia. In line with the model predictions, I present predictability evidence of individual volatility risk premia for stock excess returns and corporate credit spreads.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/43091/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library in its series LSE Research Online Documents on Economics with number 43091.

    as
    in new window

    Length: 54 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:43091
    Contact details of provider: Postal: LSE Library Portugal Street London, WC2A 2HD, U.K.
    Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
    Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    3. Toft, Klaus Bjerre & Prucyk, Brian, 1997. " Options on Leveraged Equity: Theory and Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1151-80, July.
    4. Ian Martin, 2013. "The Lucas Orchard," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 55-111, 01.
    5. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2007. "Determining the Number of Factors in the General Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 603-617, June.
    6. Basak, Suleyman & Cuoco, Domenico, 1998. "An Equilibrium Model with Restricted Stock Market Participation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 309-41.
    7. Goyal, Amit & Saretto, Alessio, 2009. "Cross-section of option returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 310-326, November.
    8. Lior Menzly & Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Understanding Predictability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-47, February.
    9. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1982. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Scholarly Articles 3230355, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    10. DeMiguel, Victor & Plyakha, Yuliya & Uppal, Raman & Vilkov, Grigory, 2010. "Improving Portfolio Selection Using Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness," CEPR Discussion Papers 7686, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
    12. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2002. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1945, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    13. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Jessica A. Wachter, 2008. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1653-1687, July.
    14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    15. Hong, Harrison & Wang, Jiang & Yu, Jialin, 2008. "Firms as buyers of last resort," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 119-145, April.
    16. George Chacko, 2002. "Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: A General Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 195-241, March.
    17. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
    18. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
    19. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2003. "The Conditional CAPM Does Not Explain Asset-pricing Anomalies," Working papers 4427-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    20. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2004. "Does Net Buying Pressure Affect the Shape of Implied Volatility Functions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 711-753, 04.
    21. Michal Pakos & Hui Chen, 2008. "Asset Pricing with Uncertainty About the Long Run," 2008 Meeting Papers 295, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Garleanu, Nicolae Bogdan & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Poteshman, Allen M, 2005. "Demand-Based Option Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 5420, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    24. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    25. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    26. Basak, Suleyman, 2005. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2849-2881, November.
    27. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Robust Criterion for Determining the Number of Static Factors in Approximate Factor Models," LEM Papers Series 2007/19, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    28. Sydeny C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2005. "Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 11703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
    30. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    31. Yong Bao, 2009. "Estimation Risk-Adjusted Sharpe Ratio and Fund Performance Ranking under a General Return Distribution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(2), pages 152-173, Spring.
    32. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
    33. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    34. Dennis, Patrick & Mayhew, Stewart, 2002. "Risk-Neutral Skewness: Evidence from Stock Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 471-493, September.
    35. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1990. "Expectations and Volatility of Consumption and Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 207-32.
    36. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-43.
    37. Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March.
    38. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, 02.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:43091. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (LSERO Manager)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.