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Regime Switches in Swedish Interest Rates

Author

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  • Erlandsson, Ulf

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

Abstract

This paper examines the forecasting properties of a Markov regime-switching model applied to Swedish interest rate volatility. A Monte Carlo testing procedure is used to arrive at a three state specification that is able to capture the high degree of leptokurtosis in the data without additional modelling of conditional heteroskedasticity. The final specification is shown to possess good forecasting properties both in general and for specific samples and horizons, something that the benchmark processes are unable to achieve.

Suggested Citation

  • Erlandsson, Ulf, 2002. "Regime Switches in Swedish Interest Rates," Working Papers 2002:5, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 04 Mar 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2002_005
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    File URL: http://project.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/Papers/WP02_5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    7. Tore Ellingsen & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1594-1607.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Humala, 2005. "Interest rate pass-through and financial crises: do switching regimes matter? the case of Argentina," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 77-94.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regime switching; forecasting; volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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