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Fear of disruption: a model of Markov-switching regimes for the Brazilian country risk conditional volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Maurício Yoshinori Une

    (Banco Itaú S.A.)

  • Marcelo Savino Portugal

    (PPGE/UFRGS)

Abstract

In the literature, little role is attributed to the country risk conditional volatility in the determination of the macroeconomic equilibrium in a developing small open economy (DSOE). This paper posits the prime hypothesis that, in the presence of multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling prophecies, one of the reasons why investors prefer to speculate in a determined country’s sovereign bonds, raising its country risk levels, is the switch of the expected macroeconomic fundamentals’ conditional variance towards a higher regime. Non-linear GARCH models are applied to monitor different switching regimes of the Brazilian country risk conditional volatility, with special emphasis on Markov switching regimes. Results indicate that the high volatility regime periods, better identified by the latter, coincide with all the severe liquidity crisis episodes suffered by Brazil from May 1994 through September 2002. Thus, although not free of limitations, the country risk’s high conditional volatility regime might determine a bad equilibrium and its monitoring might work as a practical tool to assess the duration of liquidity crises in a DSOE highly dependent on foreign capital inflows such as Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurício Yoshinori Une & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2005. "Fear of disruption: a model of Markov-switching regimes for the Brazilian country risk conditional volatility," Econometrics 0509005, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0509005
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 22
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paolo Mauro & Nathan Sussman & Yishay Yafeh, 2002. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then versus Now," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 695-733.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching; non-linear GARCH; conditional volatility; country risk; multiple equilibria; self-fulfilling prophecies; liquidity crisis.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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